$760 Million Oil Bet Placed Minutes Before Iran Hormuz Announcement Raises Questions

Last Updated:April 18, 2026, 19:27 IST

Investors made a 760 million bet against oil minutes before Iran said Hormuz was open, oil fell 11, adding to suspicions of information leaks and prompting US regulatory probes.

 Investors placed a $760 million bet on falling oil prices just minutes before Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial shipping, triggering fresh concerns over possible market-moving information leaks.

According to trading data accessed by Reuters, between 12:24 GMT and 12:25 GMT, investors sold 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures, positioning for a drop in prices.

Around 20 minutes later, Araghchi said that passage through Hormuz was “completely open" during the ceasefire period — a move that sent oil prices tumbling by as much as 11% in the minutes that followed.

Pattern of well-timed trades

The trade is the latest in a series of large, precisely timed bets in oil markets ahead of major geopolitical announcements linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Earlier:

• On April 7, trades worth about $950 million were placed hours before a US-Iran ceasefire announcement
• On March 23, roughly $500 million was sold within 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, sparking a 15% drop in oil prices

Regulatory scrutiny intensifies

The unusual timing of these trades has raised alarms among US lawmakers and legal experts, who warn that decisions around war and diplomacy could be giving certain traders an unfair edge in volatile commodities markets.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is now investigating several of these transactions, including those in March and April, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Market impact and concerns

Oil markets have been highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint.

Even small signals, such as ceasefire announcements or shipping updates — have triggered sharp price swings, making the market particularly vulnerable to speculative trades.

The latest transaction is likely to intensify calls for greater transparency and oversight, as regulators examine whether traders may have had access to non-public information ahead of key announcements.

News world $760 Million Oil Bet Placed Minutes Before Iran Hormuz Announcement Raises Questions

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