After Larijani’s Killing, Who Can The US Turn To In Tehran For A Diplomatic Off-Ramp?

Last Updated:March 18, 2026, 10:15 IST

Larijani had long played a central role in shaping Iran’s national security strategy and foreign policy outreach.

The killing of Ali Larijani has left a significant gap in Iran’s wartime leadership, raising fresh doubts over who in Tehran can credibly engage with Washington as the conflict escalates.

A veteran insider with decades of influence across Iran’s political and security establishment, Larijani was widely seen as a pragmatic conservative, one of the few figures capable of balancing hardline positions with the option of diplomacy.

His death in an Israeli strike is expected to tilt the internal balance further toward more uncompromising factions.

A Key Power Broker Lost

Larijani had long played a central role in shaping Iran’s national security strategy and foreign policy outreach. With deep ties across factions and close links to the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he was instrumental in high-level decision-making and backchannel diplomacy.

In the weeks leading up to the conflict, he had been actively engaged in regional and international outreach, travelling between Gulf states and holding talks in Moscow with Vladimir Putin, underscoring his importance as a diplomatic conduit.

Following Khamenei’s assassination earlier in the war, Larijani had emerged as a central figure in Iran’s leadership structure, with Israel even describing him as the country’s de facto leader, a reflection of his growing influence.

Fewer Avenues For Diplomacy

Larijani’s absence is likely to complicate efforts to find a diplomatic off-ramp. Analysts warn that his removal could strengthen hardline elements who are less inclined toward negotiation.

“Israel appears to be targeting those who could push for a political solution," said Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggesting the strikes may be narrowing the space for diplomacy.

An Israeli government spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity, signalled a hardline stance, saying the objective was to dismantle Iran’s ruling system entirely rather than negotiate with it.

Who Holds Power Now?

In the immediate aftermath of Khamenei’s death, authority was briefly managed by an interim leadership council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian and judiciary chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei. Alongside them, Larijani and other conservative figures shaped wartime decision-making.

With Larijani gone, power is expected to consolidate further around hardline नेताओं such as Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, a former commander linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His rising influence could signal a tougher domestic and foreign policy posture.

The succession to Larijani’s role within the Supreme National Security Council — a key body overseeing defence and foreign policy — will be closely watched, as it could determine whether any diplomatic channel remains viable.

Marginalising Pragmatists?

Larijani was unique among Iran’s senior leadership in maintaining links to the more moderate political era associated with former president Hassan Rouhani and diplomats like Abbas Araghchi.

His absence raises concerns that pragmatic voices could be further sidelined. Figures such as Rouhani and former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif may find themselves increasingly marginalised if hardliners tighten their grip.

A System More Rigid And Riskier

Experts say Larijani’s role went beyond formal titles. He acted as a bridge between Iran’s military strategy and political decision-making, maintaining ties with regional actors and Western officials alike.

“Tehran loses one of the few insiders able to connect the battlefield to politics," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. The result, he warned, may not be immediate weakness but a system that is “more rigid, less coherent, and potentially more dangerous."

The Bottom Line

While Iran’s institutional structure ensures continuity, the loss of Larijani removes a rare figure who combined authority, experience, and diplomatic reach. For the United States, potential counterparts in Tehran still exist, but the path to engagement is now narrower, more fragmented, and increasingly dominated by hardline actors.

In the near term, any diplomatic off-ramp from the conflict appears more distant, and far more difficult to secure.

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