Alberta’s Separatists Are Losing Big in Latest Opinion Polls

(Bloomberg) -- Only two in 10 Albertans want to hold a binding referendum on whether the province should stay in Canada, according to a new Ipsos poll.

It’s one of the first indications of how people may vote in a plebiscite that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced last month, and it suggests separatist campaigners have their work cut out for them.

Residents of the energy-rich region will vote on Oct. 19 on this question: “Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” 

Ipsos found that 72% of Albertans said they would vote for the first option. Just 19% said they would vote for the second option and 7% were undecided.

The poll also asked respondents whether they would vote for Alberta independence. Just 18% said they would — a 10-point drop from January, Ipsos said. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised to meet a number of Smith’s demands, including easing environmental restrictions on the energy sector, the main economic driver in Alberta.   

The trends were echoed in a poll from Leger, also published Friday. It found that 24% supported a referendum being held but just 15% would vote for independence, its lowest level this year in that pollster’s surveys.

Supporters of Smith’s ruling United Conservative Party are more split. Half prefer to stay in Canada while 41% want to separate, Ipsos said. 

Smith called for the vote partly because she’s trying to manage divisions within her own party. Last month, a separatist group said it had collected more than 300,000 signatures on a petition in favor of a referendum on separation. Support is concentrated in the rural areas of Alberta, a province of about 5 million people. 

As an indicator of the survey’s precision, Ipsos said the answers have a “credibility interval” of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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