BNP scripts landslide win: What Tarique Rahman’s Government means for 1.3 crore Hindus of Bangladesh

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Bangladesh Election Results: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won an overwhelming two-thirds majority in Parliamentary elections held on Thursday, news agencies reported, citing domestic TV channels. The outcome is expected to bring stability after months of tumult following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a student-led uprising in 2024.

Latest counts in a vote seen as the South Asian nation's first competitive election in years gave the BNP and its allies at least 212 of the 299 seats up for grabs, Reuters said, quoting from domestic TV channels. The opposition Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies won 70 seats in Bangladesh's Parliament – the Jatiya Sangsad.

The Election Commission put the BNP at 181 seats, the Jamaat-e-Islami at 61 and others at 7, with full official results not expected before noon on Friday, the Reuters report said.

Tarique Rahman, the 60-year-old chairman of the BNP, is all set to be sworn in as the next prime minister of Bangladesh.

The Hindus of Bangladesh

New Delhi has been closely watching the voting in neighbouring Bangladesh for several reasons. Apart from its ‘neighbourhood first’ diplomatic approach, India also keeps an eye on the status of Hindus in the muslim majority country, more so after recent violence against minorities.

Bangladesh is a 90 per cent Muslim-majority country. Hindus make up a small minority in Bangladesh, about 13.1 million people, or roughly 8 per cent of the country's population of 170 million, while Muslims make up 91 per cent.

With the rise and return of BNP, a party which has a poor track record on the safety of minorities, there is a sense of fear among Hindus, as reported by the Indian Express before the results came out on Friday.

The Hindu community constituted the traditional support base of Hasina’s Awami League.

Violence against Hindus

Following the August 2024 upheaval, violent incidents targeting the Hindu community in Bangladesh were reported, resulting in multiple deaths and attacks on homes and businesses.

The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council, an umbrella group representing minority communities, says it documented more than 2,000 incidents of communal violence since the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a mass uprising in August 2024.

The group recorded at least 61 killings, 28 instances of violence against women - among them rape and gang rape - and 95 attacks on places of worship involving vandalism, looting and arson. It has also accused the Yunus-led administration of routinely dismissing or downplaying reports of such violence.

The administration headed by Yunus has consistently denied claims that it has failed to ensure adequate protection for minority communities and insisted that most incidents aren't driven by religious hostility.

Previous elections in Bangladesh have also seen increases in violence, with religious minorities often bearing the brunt. But with Hasina's Awami League party barred from contesting elections and with her living in exile in India, many Hindus fear the worst as they have long been viewed as aligned with Hasina.

Karmaker, the rights activist, told news agency AP recently that Hindus are often perceived as voting en masse for one side, a perception that heightens their vulnerability.

"The individuals involved in this violence are not being brought under the law, nor are they being held accountable through the justice system. It creates the impression that the violence will continue," Karmaker said.

The re-emergence of Jamaat-e-Islami

The surge in attacks against Hindus has unfolded alongside the reemergence of Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh's largest Islamist party, and its student wing. After years on the political sidelines due to bans, arrests and sustained crackdowns under Hasina's government, the party sees the election as an opportunity to regain influence.

Jamaat-e-Islami anchors a broader Islamist alliance of 11 parties, among them the student-led National Citizen Party, or NCP, whose leaders played a central role in the 2024 uprising.

Jamaat has, however, lost the elections. Though in the run-up to the February 12 polls. Jamaat-e-Islami tried to recast its public image, even though it advocates Shariah, or Islamic law. It organised public rallies featuring Hindu participants and nominated a Hindu community leader as one of its candidates.

‘Cautious optimism among Hindus’

Senior journalist and author Deep Haldar believes that there is cautious optimism among Hindus as BNP is all set to storm to power in Bangladesh. “When the BNP was in power last time, between 2001 and 2006. It was one of the worst periods for Hindus in Bangladesh,” Halder told LiveMint.

Halder, who has followed Bangladesh for years, however, recalls that in 2001 the BNP had come to power in alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami.

“This time Jamaat and BNP were political rivalries. And from what I have heard, a sizeable Hindu vote has gone to the BNP. Even as Jamaat chose to reach out to Hindus, more Hindus chose BNP over Jamaat. So I think there is cautious optimism among Hindus about the BNP government,” said Halder, who co-authored the 2023 book – ‘Being Hindu In Bangladesh: The Untold Story.’

Worsening Ties

Throughout the fifteen years of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government in Bangladesh, New Delhi enjoyed friendly ties with Dhaka until 2024, when she was forced to leave the country. During Hasina's tenure, India treated Bangladesh as an important strategic partner and ally in maintaining security in South Asia.

However, the New Delhi-Dhaka ties started deteriorating soon after the ouster of the Hasina-led Awami League regime on 5 August 2024 and the subsequent violence against minorities, particularly the Hindu community.

Attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh have also inflamed tensions within India, prompting protests by Hindu nationalist groups and criticism from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government.

Diplomatic tension

India's Foreign Ministry recently accused Bangladesh of downplaying a "disturbing pattern of recurring attacks" on Hindus, saying such violence was wrongly blamed on personal or political disputes. Bangladesh, in turn, described India's criticism as "systematic attempts" to stoke anti-Bangladesh sentiments.

The dispute has spilled into diplomacy and sporting events. Both sides have suspended some visa services and accused each other of failing to protect diplomatic missions. India also withdrew families of Indian diplomats from Bangladesh, citing security concerns ahead of the national elections.

The diplomatic tension has affected sports ties too. Last month, Bangladesh withdrew from the men’s T20 World Cup after the International Cricket Council declined a request to move their group matches from India to the co-hosts Sri Lanka.

This came after a celebrated Bangladeshi bowler, Mustafizur Rahman, was dropped from an Indian Premier League team after pressure from Hindu groups following attacks on the Hindu minority in Bangladesh.

Multifaceted relations: PM Modi

As the news of BNP’s sweep came in, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first leaders in the region to convey his ‘warm congratulations’ to Tarique Rahman on leading his party to a decisive victory in the Bangladesh elections.

The individuals involved in this violence are not being brought under the law, nor are they being held accountable through the justice system. It creates the impression that the violence will continue.

PM Modi said India will continue to stand by a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh. “I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals,” he said.

(With inputs from agencies)

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