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The tradition, which dates back 140 years, holds that if a groundhog leaves its burrow and sees its shadow, it will scurry back inside and winter will continue for six more weeks.
Despite lacking formal meteorology training, America’s most celebrated rodent forecaster will on Monday weigh in on whether there will be six more weeks of winter or if spring will get an early start.
The tradition, which dates back 140 years, holds that if a groundhog leaves its burrow and sees its shadow, it will scurry back inside and winter will continue for six more weeks. If he doesn't see his shadow, an early spring is said to be on the way.
Tens of thousands of people gather at Gobbler’s Knob each year for this tradition, which has roots in old European farming customs. The celebration in Punxsutawney became much more popular after the 1993 film “Groundhog Day,” starring Bill Murray.
When is Groundhog Day 2026?
Groundhog Day will be observed on Monday, Feb. 2, 2026. Although it is not a federal holiday, Americans tune in every year to see whether the famous groundhog predicts a longer winter or an early spring.
The main celebrations are held at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, about 80 miles northeast of Pittsburgh. The early-morning event is free and open to the public, with spectators allowed to enter the grounds starting at 3:30 a.m. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club marks the occasion with fireworks, talent shows, banquets, and live performances before and after the prediction.
What time does Punxsutawney Phil come out?
According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Phil usually emerges to make his forecast at around 7:25 a.m. ET, though the timing may vary slightly each year.
Is Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction accurate?
Despite the excitement surrounding the tradition, Phil’s forecasting record is less impressive. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the groundhog has “no predictive skill”. According to a 2025 report, Phil has been correct only about 30% of the time over the past decade.
Experts note that people may have better luck following NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook, which suggests that parts of the southern United States — including areas of Florida, Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona — could experience above-normal temperatures in March, April, and May 2026.
Last year, Phil predicted six more weeks of winter - his most common forecast and one that did not come as a surprise in early February. Members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, dressed in top hats, say they understand Phil’s “groundhogese,” which includes winks, purrs, chatters and nods, and translate his messages about the weather ahead.
Phil is not the only animal used to predict the weather on Groundhog Day. Similar events, both official and informal, are held in many parts of the U.S., Canada and other countries.
English (US) ·