Explained: How Maldives went from ‘India Out’ to inviting PM Modi for Independence Day

Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins his two-day state visit to the Maldives today at the invitation of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu. This marks his third visit to the island nation and the first by a head of government during the tenure of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu.

The visit is expected to deepen the growing partnership between India and the Maldives, especially under the framework of the India-Maldives Joint Vision for a Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership, adopted during President Muizzu’s visit to India in October 2024.

PM Modi’s visit to the island nation marks a significant shift in India-Maldives relations, especially since President Muizzu became President of the island nation in September 2023.

Since taking office, the Maldives under Muizzu adopted a policy aimed at strengthening relations with China and in a way reducing dependence on India. This approach was influenced by Muizzu and his party’s ‘India Out’ campaign, domestic politics, and pro-China tilt, according to experts.

Union Cabinet Minister Kiren Rijiju had attended Muizzu's oath-taking in September 2023. Soon after taking office, Muizzu visited Turkey in December 2023 and China in January 2024. This was a departure from the tradition of the new Maldivian presidents visiting India first after taking office.

“Despite provocations, India continued to engage. It understood domestic compulsions of Muizzu’s demands and replaced its 76 troops with technicians in May 2024, overcoming their biggest bilateral hurdle," Shivamurthy wrote.

The replacement of troops, the ruling People’s National Congress (PNC)’s super-majority in parliament following the April 2024 elections, the dire economic situation at home, and underwhelming support from China, nudged the Maldives to separate politics from geopolitics, writes Shivamurthy.

In May 2024, Maldives Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer visited India to mend ties and seek economic assistance, he points out. The visit paved the way for further high-level engagements and honest conversations.

President Muizzu visited India in October 2024. The five-day visit culminated in the adoption of the “Vision for Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership.”

“The Maldives will not do anything that would harm India’s security interests. We value India’s role as a close neighbour and friend,” President Muizzu said during the visit, marking a sharp departure from his earlier ‘India-Out’ campaign.

In April 2025, India approved the highest-ever quotas for essential goods exports to the Maldives, reaffirming its commitment to the welfare of its maritime neighbour.

Trade between the two nations has grown substantially-from crossing the USD 300 million mark in 2021 to exceeding USD 500 million in 2022. 

In 2023, bilateral trade stood at USD 548 million. This surge was driven by the launch of a dedicated cargo vessel service in September 2020 and several Lines of Credit (LoC) projects initiated since 2021. Visa-free access for Indian business travellers, granted in February 2022, further encouraged commercial engagement.

Earlier this week, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri attributed the turnaround in the relationship to India's hard work on ties with the island nation.

“Faced with political hostility and personal criticism, he chose to remain committed to a pragmatic, forward-looking foreign policy. Rather than retaliating, Modi’s approach emphasised engagement, development cooperation, and people-to-people ties—hallmarks of a mature global leader,” Khurshid wrote in a recent piece.

As things stand, the Muizzu government has distanced its domestic politics from foreign policy and, according to experts, reached a compromise with India by agreeing to replace Indian troops with technicians instead of a complete withdrawal.

In May 2024, 76 Indian military personnel were replaced by civilian personnel sent by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).  

Additionally, the Maldives shifted one of its Chinese agriculture projects, after India relayed its concerns about Chinese projects near the India-funded Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTF) harbour. Shivamurthy pointed out that India understands the Maldives’ domestic compulsions and has tolerated its agency and right to engage with other countries.

However, as Muizzu replaced his partisan policy with a pragmatic one, he has assuaged New Delhi’s concerns by respecting its sensitivities. And in return, he has secured the much-needed economic assistance and cooperation, writes Shivamurthy.