Explained: Why Tarique Rahman-led BNP government is India’s best-case scenario in post-Hasina Bangladesh

Bangladesh Elections: The alliance led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is on course to emerge victorious in the Bangladesh elections, leading in at least 212 of the 299 seats that went to the polls on 12 February.

Local media are projecting a landslide victory for the BNP - though their estimates vary. The party and its allies are projected to win around two-thirds of the seats. If the trends hold in official results, Tarique Rahman, the BNP chairman, will become the Prime Minister of Bangladesh.

The Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance has won 70 constituencies, according to unofficial results being declared by TV channels on Friday. The final figures will be released by the Election Commission later in the day.

New Delhi has been closely watching the voting in neighbouring Bangladesh for several reasons.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi conveyed his ‘warm congratulations’ to Tarique Rahman on leading the BNP to a decisive victory in the Bangladesh elections.

“This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership,”

India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh, PM Modi said. “I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals,” he said.

However, the New Delhi-Dhaka ties started deteriorating soon after the ouster of the Hasina-led Awami League regime on 5 August 2024 and the subsequent violence against minorities, particularly the Hindu community.

As violence ensued across Bangladesh, Hasina fled to India.

So what does BNP's return to power under Tarique Rahman mean for India? Let's first take a look at BNP's ties with India under its late leader and former prime minister, Begum Khaleda Zia, who passed away in December last year.

New Delhi traditionally viewed Khaleda Zia dispensation in Bangladesh as less predictable and less cooperative, especially on security matters. New Delhi warmed more to Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, seeing her as a more reliable partner.

Khaleda Zia’s India connection was usually defined more by distance than engagement. While she did not sever ties with New Delhi, her leadership marked a period of cool relations, and limited strategic cooperation.

This was a sharp contrast to the close India–Bangladesh partnership that developed during Sheikh Hasina’s rule in Bangladesh.

New Delhi fears that Hasina’s removal from power has created space for groups that are hostile towards India, amid growing anti-India rhetoric and violence in Bangladesh, according to experts on South Asia politics. Attacks on minorities – including Bangladesh’s Hindu population – have exacerbated tensions, they said.

Last year's lynching and public burning of a 25-year-old Hindu man, Dipu Chandra Das, in Bangladesh, sparked protests in India in New Delhi, Kolkata, Hyderabad and other cities, calling for the protection of minorities and strong diplomatic action.

Those who follow Bangladesh describe the period as a shift from a ‘golden era’ of cooperation to one marked by suspicion, reduced engagement and diplomatic unease.

The outgoing interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has been perceived in India as less aligned with New Delhi’s strategic interests. Delhi hasn't engaged with Dhaka over the last 18 months, primarily because India considers the Yunus administration an unelected government, said people who follow Bangladesh.

“India desisted from engaging with the Yunus government beyond what is absolutely necessary. A definite vote would at least lead Delhi and Dhaka come to a negotiating table and we will have to wait to watch,” senior journalist and author Deep Haldar told LiveMint as counting is underway.

Both sides have recently shown the intent to turn over a new leaf, other experts said, citing Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to attend Khaleda Zia’s funeral, carrying Prime Minister Modi’s letter referring to a “new beginning.”

"This signals that New Delhi is willing to take small steps toward normalising relations if the new government in Dhaka shares the intent, Praveen Donthi, Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group, told LiveMint recently.

By the 1990s, Jamaat had re-established itself as a recognised political party. In the subsequent years, Jamaat became a key ally of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Khaleda Zia, Tarique’s mother. In the 2001 general election, the BNP-Jamaat alliance won power. Jamaat secured 17 parliamentary seats and held ministerial portfolios for the first time in Bangladesh’s history.

Several top Jamaat leaders were convicted and executed during Hasina's regime after 2009. The party was banned from contesting elections, though leaders sometimes ran as independents or under alliances.

Jamaat regained political space in the last 18 months under the Yunus-led dispensation. Restrictions were eased, and it eventually aligned with newer political formations and student groups to contest the 12 February polls. Shafiqur Rahman was elected ameer, or chief, of Jamaat-e-Islami in 2019.

India has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in Asia. Between April 2023 and March 2024, before Hasina's fall, India sold goods, including textiles, tea, coffee, auto parts, electricity, agriculture, iron and steel and plastics, worth $11.1bn.

“India and China will try to outdo each other in this race for influence, and Bangladesh will try to make the most out of it,” Donthi said, adding that it all depends on how both sides manage domestic political pulls and pressures.