Geoeconomic conflict tops global risks for 2026, cybersecurity major concern for India, says WEF, flags AI impact

Geoeconomic conflict has emerged as the top risk facing the world in 2026, while cyber insecurity is a significant concern for India, according to the Global Risks Report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) released on Wednesday, 14 January

The report noted that geoeconomic confrontation has risen eight positions to become the most significant risk globally for a two-year period, followed by misinformation and disinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, and interstate conflict.

Over a ten-year span, the greatest risks are extreme weather events, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, which are critical changes to Earth's systems. Other significant concerns include misinformation and disinformation, as well as the negative impacts of AI technologies.

The WEF highlighted that critical infrastructure has become a new arena for global conflict. It warned that governments with control over rivers and reservoirs might be tempted to divert water to their own populations, potentially harming neighbouring countries, indicating the growing importance of water security around the world.

"Potential flashpoints over the next decade could include the Indus River Basin, between India and Pakistan, or Afghanistan's construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal, which could diminish the flow of the Amu Darya River into Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan," it said.

Meanwhile, the report cited India's Unified Payments Interface as a "a good example" for governments to adopt, aiming to enhance the attractiveness of their banking systems and, consequently, increase resilience against potential future global debt situations or broader financial crises.

Regarding risks emerging from misinformation and disinformation,it identified a specific problem area as the spread of deepfakes, or digitally altered videos, images, and audio recordings.

The reports said that deepfakes have begun to proliferate, exerting a greater influence on politics and electoral processes. Their weaponisation can undermine trust in democratic institutions, contributing to increased political polarisation and potentially leading to the incitement of political violence or social upheaval.

"Recent elections in the United States, Ireland, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Japan, India and Argentina have all had to contend with such fabricated content on social media, depicting fictional events or discrediting political candidates, blurring the line between fact and fiction," it said.

When it comes to the outlook for the next 10 years, 57 per cent expect a turbulent or stormy world, 32 per cent expect things to be unsettled, 10 per cent predict stability and 1 per cent anticipate calm.

"A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential," WEF President and CEO Borge Brende said.

"Our Annual Meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them," he added.

Economic risks experience the most significant collective rise in the two-year outlook. Both economic downturn and inflation risks jumped eight places, now ranked 11th and 21st, respectively, while the risk of an asset bubble burst increased seven positions to 18th.

Rising debt concerns and potential asset bubbles, amid geoeconomic tensions, could trigger a new phase of volatility, according to the report.

Misinformation and disinformation ranked second on the two-year outlook, while cybersecurity ranked sixth globally.

The negative outcomes of AI showed the clearest progression, rising from 30th in the two-year outlook to 5th in the 10-year outlook, reflecting concerns about the impacts on labour markets, societies, and security.

Societal polarisation ranked 4th in 2026 and 3rd by 2028. Inequality ranked 7th in both the two-year and 10-year outlooks.

As short-term concerns overshadowed long-term goals, environmental risks moved down in priority in the two-year forecast.

Extreme weather moved down from 2nd to 4th place, pollution decreased from 6th to 9th, while critical changes to Earth systems and biodiversity loss each dropped seven and five positions, respectively.

Over the 10-year period, they continued to be the most severe. Three-quarters of respondents anticipated a turbulent or stormy environmental outlook, representing the most negative perception among all categories.