How Ajit Pawar's death leaves NCP's future at stake. Who will step into his shoes in Maharashtra?

The tragic death of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar in a plane crash on Wednesday has not only left a vacuum in the BJP-led state coalition government.

One cannot imagine Maharashtra's political dynamics without Ajit Pawar, the state's longest-serving deputy chief minister. Throughout his political career, within Maharashtra, Pawar remained one of its key power centres – irrespective of the government in power.

Clearly, his untimely death has cast a shadow on the future of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

With Pawar's death, the NCP is likely to face a leadership crisis for there are no leaders to fill Pawar's shoes. There is no clear second-in-command, according to political observers.

Senior journalist Prakash Akolkar told news agency PTI that both NCP factions are contesting the February 5 Zilla Parishad elections together on the 'clock' symbol, effectively signalling an unofficial merger.

"The question is no longer about who merges with whom. With only two Opposition parties left—Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT)—it remains to be seen whether the Congress can revive itself," he said.

As the 'clock' symbol lost its undisputed leader, questions loomed over the party’s survival and its future equation with founder Sharad Pawar, whose Rajya Sabha tenure ends in April this year.

Ajit Pawar’s death came amid speculation in Maharashtra's political circles about a possible reunion with his uncle, Sharad Pawar. Ajit Pawar was reportedly considering merging the NCP factions and returning to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance.

The NCP suffered a split in 2023 when Ajit Pawar, along with many senior leaders, broke away from the party led by his uncle, veteran politician Sharad Pawar, and joined the BJP-Shiv Sena coalition in Maharashtra.

"Though Ajit Pawar is part of the Mahayuti alliance, he remains connected with the MVA. Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar will reunite as part of the MVA. Ajit Pawar cannot sit on two stools," Raut had said.

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis will need to ensure that the 41 MLAs aligned with Ajit Pawar do not drift back toward Sharad Pawar.

Apart from state NCP president Sunil Tatkare and national working president Praful Patel, the party lacks a senior leader capable of succeeding Ajit Pawar. The only other mass-based leader, Chhagan Bhujbal—recently acquitted in a money laundering case—is currently unwell.

While Patel and Tatkare have been key organisational figures, they lack the statewide grassroots connect that Ajit Pawar commanded.

The NCP has one Lok Sabha member, Sunil Tatkare, and two Rajya Sabha MPs - Praful Patel and Sunetra Pawar.

Married to Ajit Pawar since 1985, Sunetra has long been known as the "Pawar family bahu'. She maintained a relatively low public profile for most of her life, until 2024, when she contested the Baramati Lok Sabha seat against Sharad Pawar's daughter and her sister-in-law, Supriya Sule. Sunetra lost to Sule by over 1.5 lakh votes.

With NCP founder Sharad Pawar staying away from the public glare during the recently held local bodies and civic elections, his daughter and NCP (SP) working president, Supriya Sule, campaigned for the party candidates, but was no match for her cousin Ajit Pawar, who campaigned statewide.

In the ruling Mahayuti, which won a massive mandate in the 2024 assembly polls, the BJP has 132 MLAs, followed by Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena with 57 and Pawar's NCP 41.

Recent Performance in Civic Polls

In the recently concluded civic polls in Maharashtra, the NCP, which contested separately from Mahayuti allies, bagged 167 seats across 29 municipal corporations and was defeated by the BJP on its home ground of Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad, where it had aligned with Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP), which won only 36 seats across the state.

Last month, in the polls to 246 municipal councils and 42 nagar panchayats, the NCP won 966 and NCP (SP) 256 out of the total 6,851 seats.

(With PTI inputs)