How China framed Donald Trump through the Thucydides Trap

Except there were no mentions of these by his host, Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom Trump described as an “incredible guy” to Fox News reporters on 15 May while returning home.

In fact, his 14 May meeting with Xi at the Great Hall of the People suggests he may have been told, politely, that he no longer holds all the cards.

A Chinese readout said Xi noted that “transformation not seen in a century is accelerating across the globe, and the international situation is fluid and turbulent. Can China and the US overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major-country relations?”

Translation: China is growing in economic and political strength. A new world order with an ascendant China is dawning. The US (and the West) is yesterday’s power, and China is tomorrow’s.

The reference to the “Thucydides Trap” was the most interesting. Many commentators pointed to Xi pulling out this thousands-of-years-old example to send a clear message to Trump on managing US-China ties, i.e., between a dominant power and a rapidly rising one.

The reference comes from Greek history. As Thucydides, an Athenian general, recounts, a war between rising Athens and established Sparta went badly for both—Athens lost the war and its influence, while Sparta’s dominance soon declined despite its victory.

The inference is that a conflict could arise if the US attempts to stymie China’s rise. In this context, Xi used the opportunity to bring Taiwan into play as a key leverage point, saying that if it is “handled properly” by the US, the US-China ties “will enjoy overall stability".

“‘Taiwan independence’ and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water…The US side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question,” said the China readout.

No wonder Trump dodged a comment on Taiwan, despite being asked three times in front of Xi on 14 May.

Next came Xi’s reference to “constructive strategic stability” that will guide US-China relations over the next three years (Trump's remaining term in office) “and beyond”. Is China trying to lock in a favourable trade "truce" with the US for an undetermined period? Is this China’s idea of a G2?

Surprisingly, there was no word of assurance from Beijing even on the critical question of rare-earth exports.

On Iran, Trump said the US and China “feel very similar” about ending the war, but there weren’t any details on how to get a breakthrough. “We don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon. We want the Strait (of Hormuz) open,” Trump was quoted as saying.

While Trump told Fox News that China had said it wouldn’t sell weapons to Iran, Beijing's readout didn't mention Iran; it did say, though, that the West Asia war and Ukraine were discussed.

Meanwhile, the fragile ceasefire in West Asia holds for now, even though the Hormuz remains closed to international shipping.

Trump said ahead of his China visit that the existing “ceasefire is unbelievably weak” and later added that it was “on life support”. With China using the crisis to project its own stature, any sign of an end to it remains distant.

But there was no joint statement, given the wide gulf in views between Iran and the UAE over the West Asia war, belying expectations that the grouping—seen as an alternative to Western-dominated blocs—would issue strong statements, and perhaps even propose solutions, to an increasingly crisis-hit global economy.

Pakistan's ministry of foreign affairs issued a categorical rejection of the CBS News report, slamming it as "misleading and sensationalized". It said the aircraft arrived as part of routine logistical arrangements to support the Islamabad peace talks. It said the planes "bear no linkage whatsoever to any military contingency or preservation arrangement".

The explanation failed to convince Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who said he did not “trust Pakistan” at a Senate hearing.

“I don’t trust Pakistan, as far as I can throw them. If they actually do have Iranian aircraft parked in Pakistan bases to protect Iranian military assets, that tells me we should be looking maybe for somebody else to mediate,” Graham said, responding to an answer given by secretary of defence Pete Hegseth. “No wonder this damn thing (mediation attempt) is going nowhere,” he added.

Trump, however, is said to have expressed his confidence in Pakistan’s role as mediator.

Potentially, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company may use India’s strategic petroleum reserves for crude storage of up to 30 million barrels. India could also store crude oil in Fujairah as part of its strategic petroleum reserves. Additionally, cooperation in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage facilities in India is being explored.

All this at a time when new fault lines have emerged in West Asia. The UAE parted ways with the Saudi Arabia-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) last week, bringing a subterranean rift out into the open. The UAE sees itself as a bigger victim in the West Asia war, given the large volley of attacks it’s had to face from Iran. No surprises that it seems more aligned with the US and Israel nowadays.

Saudi Arabia seems more inclined towards an accommodation with Iran. It has its reasons. While it has a NATO-style defence pact with Pakistan, it's also part of the new group of four—Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. The new “Middle Eastern quadrilateral”—as it is being called by many—“appears to be an attempt to counterbalance Israel’s designs to ‘redraw’ the map of West Asia and to address shared security concerns, most notably the US–Israeli war with Iran,” said a paper by the London-based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Although the bloc is unlikely to evolve into a defence alliance, it could nevertheless crystallize into a concert of powers that plays a significant role in managing shared security concerns,” it added.

Elizabeth Roche is an associate professor of International Relations at O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana.