IMD forecasts below-normal southwest monsoon in June to September

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IMD has projected the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall (June to September) over the country is most likely to be below normal

A traffic police official walks across a road during rain, in Gurugram

After predicting a wetter April ahead, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall which is expected from June to September is most likely to be below normal.

The IMD estimated that the rainfall shall be 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of -5 per cent.

According to IMD, the long period average of seasonal rainfall for the period 1971-2020 stands at 87 cm.

What the IMD forecast indicates is a higher probability of rainfall falling in the “below normal” (90-95 per cent of LPA). It also falls under "deficient" (less than 90 per cent) categories.

The department stated that while weak La Nina-like conditions are currently transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific, atmospheric patterns still reflect residual La Nina characteristics. However, the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the possible development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season.

IMD further noted that with climate models suggesting positive shifts towards IOD conditions in monsoon season, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail at present.

On snow cover, IMD said that the Northern Hemisphere experienced slightly below-normal snow cover between January and March 2026. It added that reduced snow cover generally has an inverse relationship with monsoon rainfall over India.

The spatial distribution forecast suggests below-normal rainfall over many parts of the country, except some regions in Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.

IMD stated that it will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2026 as part of its two-stage long-range forecasting strategy.

The weather department also predicted above-normal number of heatwave days over East, Central and northwest India between April and June, 2026.

It said, “Above-normal number of heatwave days likely over parts of east, central and northwest India and southeast Peninsula from Apr-June. Above-normal rainfall likely over most parts of country except Northeast India in April.”

“Below-normal rainfall is expected over many parts of northeastern India,” the IMD said. Earlier, the IMD had also predicted a wetter April, with above-normal rainfall likely to shower over most parts of the country.

It said, “During the hot season (April-May-June), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.”

(With ANI inputs)

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