Japan sheds pacifism as global order begins to fracture

In a radical break from its post-World War II past, Japan announced its biggest overhaul of defence export rules, scrapping long-standing restrictions on overseas arms sales and opening the way for exports of warships, missiles and other platforms.

The move aims to strengthen Japan's defence industrial base. But it also marks Tokyo’s decisive step away from the pacifist restraints that shaped its post-war security policy.

Though debate over revising Japan’s pacifist stance has simmered for years, the latest decision comes amid two major geopolitical shifts.

First, the growing unreliability of the US in providing the security cover it once promised allies.

Second, the rise of China — now clearly not the peaceful power Beijing once projected itself to be. "Hide your strength, bide your time" was the mantra given by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s-90s. The basic idea was that China would keep a low profile and focus inward. With Xi Jinping assuming office as China’s president in 2013, Deng’s mantra was jettisoned in favour of a far more assertive foreign policy.

Japan, for its part, has been deepening ties across Asia to counter China’s growing influence. In September, Manila and Tokyo signed an agreement easing reciprocal troop access. In January, they relaxed rules for exchanging military supplies.

Separately, Tokyo is developing a next-generation fighter jet with Britain and Italy for deployment in the mid-2030s — part of a strategy to share development costs and access new technologies.

"No single country can now protect its own peace and security alone, and partner countries that support each other in terms of defence equipment are necessary," Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in a post on X — a telling comment.

Japan has steadily raised defence spending to 2% of GDP, according to Reuters, and Takaichi’s government is expected to announce further increases this year when it releases a new security strategy.

Trump can boast that his actions pushed Japan out of its comfort zone — but that’s not the point.

For many Asian nations that once viewed the US as the global anchor of stability against a belligerent China, Washington now appears undependable, erratic and indifferent to its partners. Imagine your allies suddenly viewing China as more stable and predictable than you are.

The US extended a ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday just hours before it expired. Linked to this is news that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks after talks in Washington.

What the US and Iran can achieve in this round is unclear. The positive sign is that talks are happening.

A CNN report said gas stations were rationing fuel, hospitals were running out of medical supplies, people were hoarding plastic bags, and factories were facing packaging shortages in Asia. Soon, however, this disruption could morph into a headache for the US, given that about half of the products Americans use come from Asia.

A solution, therefore, is imperative.

Meanwhile, reports of the Strait of Hormuz closure, tankers being blocked, ships seized by Iran and others interdicted by American forces in the Indian Ocean continue to roil markets.

Iran’s demand for reopening the Strait reportedly includes the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets. The US would likely resist without concrete security assurances from Tehran toward Israel and Gulf Arab states.

Good luck to mediator Pakistan.

Speaking of Pakistan — perhaps Field Marshal Asim Munir needs a new title: the Trump Whisperer.

No one seems to have Trump’s ear more than the Field Marshal.

"Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal," says Trump’s Truth Social post.

While US-Pakistan ties may be warming due to Islamabad’s mediation role, another relationship appears dangerously frayed.

A Reuters report said an internal Pentagon email outlined options for the US — read Trump — to punish NATO over its perceived lack of support in the Iran war. Options reportedly include suspending Spain from the alliance and reviewing US support for Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands.

The Pentagon note reflected frustration within the Trump administration over reluctance by some NATO members to grant access, basing and overflight rights (ABO). The email stated ABO is "just the absolute baseline for NATO," Reuters quoted an unnamed US official as saying.

Trump has criticized NATO allies for not backing efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz and has even contemplated US withdrawal from the alliance.

Spain was among the first to say it would not allow its bases or airspace to be used to attack Iran.

"We do not work off emails. We work off official documents and government ⁠positions, in this case of the United States," said Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez in response.

The email also mentioned reassessing US diplomatic support for longstanding European "imperial possessions," including the Falkland Islands near Argentina — noteworthy given Argentinian president Javier Milei’s close alignment with Trump.

With Trump publicly pressuring European allies, demanding Denmark hand over Greenland and appearing insensitive to European concerns over Russia, should Washington expect unwavering loyalty?

NATO appears at breaking point. The short- and medium-term beneficiary of any NATO implosion would be Russia; the longer-term winner, China.

"A baby here becomes an instant citizen, and then they bring the entire family in from China or India or some other hellhole on the planet," the transcript quoted Savage as saying.

Trump’s immigration stance is well known, as is his criticism of the H1B visa programme. Images of Indians deported in chains during his early presidency remain fresh in memory.

Still, the repost struck many as in poor taste. India’s Ministry of External Affairs eventually responded, calling the remarks “Uninformed, inappropriate and in poor taste.”

Interestingly, the sharpest rebuttal came from the Iranian consulate in Mumbai. (Watch the clip.)

The power asymmetry between the US-Israel axis and Iran is producing some of the most striking narratives in the information warfare domain — memes, Lego videos, X posts and reels.

Perhaps India can learn a thing or two.

Elizabeth Roche is associate professor of practice at O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana.