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On the night of 28 February, the US and Israeli forces eliminated Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Will this trigger a regime change in Iran? Mint examines how events in Iran will unfold and their implications for India and the rest of the world.
When did the US attack Iran?
Late on Saturday, the US and Israeli forces launched ‘Operation Epic Fury’—a massive military operation that not only killed Iran's supreme leader Khamenei but also 40 senior officials, disrupting the Islamic Republic’s command and control. The strikes happened across 24 of Iran’s 31 provinces. Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones into Israel and other Arab states in the region. Most of them were intercepted by air defence systems. Some got through and created some damage. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vowed ‘a massive and powerful offensive operation in the history of the Islamic Republic.
What is the objective of the attack?
The US cited an imminent threat from Iran as the reason for its attack, which did not have the approval of the UN Security Council. US President Donald Trump said Iran was close to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile and a nuclear weapon. This is just months after the US-Israel joint operations ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025. Regime change, it appears, is the true motive. In his remarks after the attacks began, Trump told the Iranian people that the hour of their freedom is at hand, and this will probably be their only chance to effect regime change for generations.
Why did the US attack now?
The Islamic regime is at its weakest now. Its proxies, the Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, have either been decimated or significantly weakened. Public protests increased across Iran due to deteriorating economic conditions, and these were put down with a heavy hand. Also, the 12-day war in June 2025 saw the US and Israel destroying most of the country’s air defences and other military infrastructure.
Will the attack result in regime change?
It is too early to tell. Iran’s Islamic regime is well-entrenched and has a clear structure in place, including a succession planning system. The elimination of the supreme leader does not automatically lead to the collapse of the regime. A lot will also depend on how the IRGC, whose main responsibility is defending the Islamic Republic from internal and external threats, behaves. If it remains in control, a new hardline leader could emerge. A lot will also depend on how people react and whether a moderate leader will emerge who can, with their help, topple the Islamic regime.
How will this impact India?
With Iran threatening the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels of crude are shipped every day, oil prices are set to touch $80 per barrel when the markets open on 2 March, up from $65 levels it traded at on 27 February. A good share of India’s crude oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz. While India is looking at other sources of supply, crude oil prices above $80 per barrel for a sustained period of time will upset India’s budget math and fuel inflation. But the emergence of a moderate leader will send oil prices tumbling.
English (US) ·