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Summary
A below-normal monsoon forecast and supply chain disruptions from the West Asia war are set to put India’s agricultural resilience and food prices to the test.
With a parched monsoon forecast and a fertilizer supply chain disrupted by conflict in West Asia, Indian agriculture is caught between two raging storms. The India Meteorological Department has predicted a below-normal monsoon, while national fertilizer stocks sit at less than half of what’s required for the upcoming Kharif season.
As El Niño threatens to dry up the fields and imported urea becomes harder to secure, the resilience of India's food production and the stability of rural demand are facing their toughest test in years.
Mint explores whether these twin challenges will spark a spike in food prices or significantly dent farmers’ incomes.
What is the monsoon forecast?
The four-month monsoon spanning June-September is critical for two reasons: India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during these months, and nearly 45% of the country's farmland lacks irrigation, leaving it solely dependent on these rains.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast the monsoon to be below normal at 92% of the long-period (50-year) average. Because of the emergence of El Niño—a phenomenon in which unusual warming of Pacific Ocean waters can lead to lower precipitation over the Indian subcontinent—the second half of the monsoon (August and September) is likely to be drier. Private forecaster Skymet has also forecast a below-normal monsoon at 94% of the long-period average (LPA).
Could this reduce crop yields?
The distribution of rainfall across time and geography is critical. Long dry spells during the grain formation stage can affect yields, particularly for crops grown in marginal, unirrigated lands, such as pulses and oilseeds.
However, the resilience of food production to deficient rain has improved significantly over the years. In 2023, monsoon rains were at 94% of the LPA but Kharif foodgrain production was unaffected at 156 million tonnes. Similarly, production improved marginally year-on-year to 141 million tonnes in 2018, despite monsoon rains at 91% of the LPA. In contrast, when the monsoon was just 86% of the LPA in 2015, Kharif foodgrain production fell 2.3%.
Is a fertilizer shortage imminent?
The West Asian conflict has hampered imports of urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP), while also disrupting the supply of raw materials—specifically natural gas and sulphur—needed to manufacture these fertilizers in India. At the end of March, India’s total fertilizer stock was 18 million tonnes versus a requirement of 39 million tonnes for the Kharif season. India is buying natural gas at spot markets and importing finished urea from non-Gulf producers, but a shortfall is likely. However, this may not severely hamper production as farmers tend to overuse subsidized urea.
What about food prices?
Food inflation firmed up to 3.9% in March compared to 2.1% in January and -2.7% in December 2025. This was largely driven by higher prices of cooking oils, fruits and animal proteins. Data from the consumer affairs department showed that current prices of cooking oils are 4-15% higher year-on-year. Prices of pulses and cereals are either stagnant or lower.
However, this stability may be short-lived, as deficient rainfall threatens to drive up the cost of pulses and oils in the coming months. Prices of cereals for which India has excess stock, such as rice, are unlikely to rise. But the increase in global crude prices could push countries to convert cooking oils into biofuels, which would likely raise global edible oil (palm, soy, etc.) prices, impacting India, which is heavily dependent on imports. A dearth of rain and widespread heatwaves could also fuel an increase in the prices of fruits and vegetables.
So, what's the outlook on farmers' incomes?
Farmers have been enduring low crop prices and reduced profitability for several months, and deficient rains could worsen the distress in some pockets. If farmers spend more to water their crops using diesel pumps, cultivation costs will rise. Lower production of pulses and oilseeds, and damage to perishable produce from heatwaves may hurt incomes.
It is still unclear how the fertilizer shortage will pan out. Here, too, farmers may have to shell out extra money to buy subsidized fertilizers if the shortage becomes acute. Overall, the twin challenges of fertilizer availability and deficient rains don’t bode well for farm incomes and rural demand. Farm incomes are likely to be lower year-on-year, or flat at best.
About the Author
Sayantan Bera
Sayantan is a National Editor at Mint. As a part of its Long Story team, he writes on food and nutrition, agriculture, rural economy and climate change. His work is a blend of ground reportage and analysis where he unpacks news and trends from India’s hinterlands.<br><br>He also co-authors a fortnightly newsletter ‘Climate Change and You’ with a belief that how different sectors of the economy, and we as a species, shape and are shaped by the unfolding climate crisis, is a defining story of our times.<br><br>Before joining Mint in 2014, Sayantan worked as a correspondent and photographer with Down to Earth, an environment fortnightly, covering eastern Indian states. There he wrote on mining, environment, forests, tribes and farming. He’s been a journalist for 17+ years, most of it at Mint where he learnt how to tell human interest stories dispassionately.<br><br>Before joining journalism, Sayantan worked as a researcher at multiple think-tanks and at a non-profit, specializing in rural development and finance. Sayantan holds a Master’s and M.Phil. in Economics from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.<br><br>If you have a comment or a tip to share, he’s all ears at sayantan.bera@livemint.com.
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