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Summary
Overseas investors are returning to Indian equities after months of heavy selling. Credit renewed optimism over an India-US trade deal. It’ll take more than that, though, for a durable turnaround.
Foreign investment in Indian equities got off to a good start in February. By Friday, more than ₹8,100 crore worth of Indian shares had been bought by foreign portfolio investors. This follows their liquidation of over ₹62,000 crore worth of stocks in the previous three months.
Though these are still early days, the purchases seem consonant with a wave of economic optimism over an India-US trade deal in the works. Does this mark a turning point for foreign inflows? A cloud of gloom has lifted.
Earlier, as foreign investors exited, the rupee had slid, reducing the appeal of Indian assets. For this dynamic to durably reverse, India needs an insurge of foreign direct investments too. Perhaps New Delhi’s deal promise to vastly expand imports from the US is predicated on booming capital inflows overall, the flip side of an enlarged current account deficit.
How far equity prices go, however, would still depend on whether corporate earnings take a sharper incline than seen in their recent record. In other words, several factors must work in tandem to boost stock indices. For now, it’s a relief that household money going into mutual funds isn’t all that’s supporting stock prices.
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