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ARTICLE AD BOX
Summary
India’s merchanise shipments were pushed back by war turmoil in March, though they held up against US tariff pressure in 2025-26. What will it take for favourable trade conditions to return?
India’s exports took a blow in March, with merchandise exports falling to $38.9 billion from $42.1 billion a year earlier. Imports fell to $59.6 billion from $63.7 billion, helping narrow last month’s goods-trade deficit to $20.7 billion.
The impact of the US war on Iran seems to have started playing out. But since it impacted only the last month of 2025-26, goods exports still managed to notch up a gain last fiscal year, rising to $441.8 billion from $437.7 billion in 2024-25. This was in the face of US tariff headwinds and it’s a relief that we saw no shrinkage last year.
For windy conditions and turbulence to recede, however, we need the war to end quickly and clarity to emerge on the status of India’s trade ties with the US.
On the former, glimmers of hope have been interspersed with escalatory worries. On the latter, it’s hard to foresee which way ‘Special 301’ investigations of Indian practices by the US will lead American tariff policy, though talks for a bilateral deal could possibly make their outcome irrelevant.
In theory, a weaker rupee should boost our overall exports. But then, global competitiveness isn’t just about pricing and we can’t always rely on a currency tailwind.
English (US) ·