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The IMD also said conditions are favourable for the monsoon’s advance over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands over the next 24 hours
Early rains could help ease concerns over food supplies, stimulate rural spending, and curb food inflation by lowering dependence on diesel-powered irrigation.New Delhi: India is likely to see the southwest monsoon arrive over Kerala around 26 May, according to the latest update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), raising hopes for a timely start to the crucial kharif sowing season despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall this year.
Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala on 24 May, eight days ahead of its normal onset date of 1 June.
"The southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on 26th May with a model error of ± 4 days," said IMD in its latest update.
The IMD also said conditions are favourable for the monsoon’s advance over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands over the next 24 hours.
A timely onset is expected to aid sowing of key kharif crops such as paddy, maize, cotton, soybean and oilseeds, agriculture experts said. Early rains could help ease concerns over food supplies, stimulate rural spending, and curb food inflation by lowering dependence on diesel-powered irrigation.
Monsoon onset over Kerala marks the formal beginning of the southwest monsoon’s advance across the Indian mainland, signalling the transition from the hot summer season to the rainy season.
The country remains heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon, which accounts for more than 70% of its annual precipitation.
Adequate rainfall boosts farm economy and strengthens rural demand. At present, only about 55% of India's net sown area is irrigated, leaving the rest reliant on rainfall. The matter assumes significance as any decrease in rainfall will increase the irrigation cost for the farmers.
"The timely arrival will be positive for kharif crops considering the forecast of below normal monsoon. The timely arrival and equitable distribution of rains is important for kharif crops," said Sudhir Panwar, farm expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.
On 13 April, the IMD forecast that India could receive below-normal rainfall this year, with the southwest monsoon likely to be 92% of the long-period average. Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the long-period average is considered normal.
The last below-normal monsoon occurred in 2023 when rainfall was 95% of the long-period average.
In its recent report, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has expressed concern about below normal rainfall and indicated that the CPI inflation would be 4.6% in FY27.
"Persistently elevated energy prices due to the West Asia conflict and possible El Niño conditions (which could have a negative impact on southwest monsoon) pose upside risks to inflation," said RBI in its report.
The department of economic affairs, in its April bulletin, also expressed concern and stated that the forecast of a below-normal, spatially uneven monsoon underscores the urgency of getting agricultural and water policies right.
About the Author
Vijay C Roy
Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.
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