'Nobody Had Perfect Foresight': Netanyahu Defends Iran War Calculations, Hormuz Risk Assessment

Last Updated:May 11, 2026, 10:47 IST

Netanyahu denied claims that he guaranteed an easy victory in the Iran war to the US, while admitting that “nobody had perfect foresight” about risks including the Hormuz Strait.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed back against suggestions that he oversold the prospects of a swift and decisive war against Iran to the United States, while also acknowledging that no side fully anticipated the risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the broader regional fallout.

In an interview with CBS News aired after the Iran conflict, Netanyahu rejected parts of a New York Times investigation published on April 7 that claimed he presented a highly optimistic case to US President Donald Trump ahead of military action against Iran.

The New York Times report said Netanyahu, during a February 11 meeting in the White House Situation Room, argued that Iran was vulnerable to regime change and that a joint US-Israeli operation could lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic.

According to the report, Israeli officials portrayed conditions as favourable for “near-certain victory," asserting that Iran would be too weakened to block the Strait of Hormuz or effectively retaliate against US interests in the Gulf.

However, Netanyahu denied that he ever guaranteed success or certainty.

“That’s actually incorrect," Netanyahu told CBS when asked about the report.

“It’s incorrect in the sense that I said, ‘Oh, well, it’s guaranteed we can do it,’ and so on."

‘RISKS OF INACTION WERE GREATER’

The Israeli Prime Minister instead said both he and Trump had acknowledged the uncertainty and dangers involved in military action against Iran.

“Not only did I note it. We both agreed, you know, that there was both uncertainty and risk involved," Netanyahu said.

“There’s danger in action, in taking action. But there’s greater danger in not taking action."

That framing closely mirrors the New York Times’ account of the February meeting, which stated that Netanyahu acknowledged operational risks but argued that delaying action would allow Iran to accelerate missile production and strengthen protections around its nuclear programme.

The Times report also described how Israeli officials allegedly outlined a scenario in which Iran’s ballistic missile programme could be dismantled within weeks, while Mossad intelligence assessments suggested anti-regime protests inside Iran could intensify under military pressure.

According to the report, Netanyahu’s presentation “seemed to land well" with Trump, who reportedly responded, “Sounds good to me."

STRAIT OF HORMUZ RISKS UNDER SCRUTINY

One of the central issues raised in the aftermath of the conflict has been whether the US and Israel underestimated the risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a major share of the world’s oil supply passes.

The New York Times report said Israeli officials had assessed that Iran would be unable to choke off the strategic waterway if the regime were weakened.

When confronted with that assessment during the CBS interview, Netanyahu suggested the threat evolved as the conflict unfolded.

“I don’t think we could quantify it exactly," he said.

“But I think that the problem of the Hormuz Straits was understood as the fighting went on."

Asked directly whether the risks had been misread initially, Netanyahu stopped short of admitting a miscalculation.

“I’m not sure it was misread," he said.

“But there’s a great risk for Iran to do it. And it took a while for them to understand how big that risk is, which they understand now."

He then added a broader acknowledgement about the unpredictability of the conflict.

“I don’t claim perfect foresight, and nobody had perfect foresight. Neither did the Iranians," Netanyahu said.

The CBS report noted that one major unforeseen development was “the degree of Iranian military retribution against neighbouring Gulf states and the damage it has caused."

REGIME CHANGE QUESTION REMAINS OPEN

Netanyahu also addressed speculation that Israel and its allies had viewed the war as an opportunity to trigger regime change in Tehran.

“I think that you can’t predict when that will happen," he said when asked if the Iranian regime could collapse.

“Is it possible? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No."

The New York Times report had earlier detailed how Israeli officials presented Trump with a video montage of potential post-regime leaders, including exiled Iranian dissident Reza Pahlavi.

The report also said Israeli planners discussed scenarios involving renewed street protests and Kurdish fighters opening a new front against Tehran.

NETANYAHU SAYS IRAN THREAT NOT ELIMINATED

Despite claiming the war achieved “a great deal," Netanyahu insisted that the conflict with Iran was not fully over.

“There’s still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran," he said.

“There are still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled."

He also said Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, remained part of the wider challenge facing Israel, though he argued that weakening Tehran could ultimately collapse the broader proxy network.

“If this regime is indeed weakened or possibly toppled, I think it’s the end of Hezbollah, it’s the end of Hamas, it’s probably the end of the Houthis," Netanyahu said.

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