Power demand eases as heatwaves abate, south-west monsoon onset likely around 4 June

"Power demand will depend upon weather conditions. Although rains and the fall in demand will ease the load on the discoms and the grid, thunderstorms and high-velocity winds are a cause of concern for the transmission lines and other key power infrastructure," said Anil Razdan, former power secretary.

However, it is widely believed that heatwaves may return.

An official with BSES, a discom in Delhi, said, "Delhi is expected to witness another significant rise in electricity demand this summer. According to the state load dispatch centre, last year, Delhi’s peak power demand had clocked 8442 MW. This year, it is likely to cross 9000 MW."

What could continue to cast a shadow is the spectre of El Nino, the global weather phenomenon associated with drier monsoons. On Tuesday, the United Nations weather agency forecast a moderate or possibly strong El Nino this year. The World Meteorological Organization said warm ocean waters were driving El Nino’s development and predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August. The WMO said it is likely El Nino will continue until November.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event - which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo. She said other risks associated with extreme heat included a wider spread of diseases borne by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks and reduced food and water supplies.

“The footprint of an El Niño travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across entire regions,” added Saulo.

The projected peak demand for India this year is 271 GW, as per the estimates of the Central Electricity Authority.

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala around 4 June. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is expected over Kerala and isolated heavy showers over Tamil Nadu and Karnataka during the next six to seven days. Also, moderate to severe thunderstorm activity accompanied by squally winds reaching 40–50 kmph is likely over several parts of Northwest, Central, East and South Peninsular India during the week, it said.

The IMD stated that maximum temperatures are expected to rise gradually by 2-4 degree Celsius over Northwest India till 3 June, followed by a decline during 4-6 June. East India may witness a temperature rise of 2–3°C till 3 June, while Maharashtra is likely to see a fall of 2–3°C during the same period.

On 1 June, maximum temperatures ranged 38-42°C over parts of Central and East India, North Peninsular India, Southwest Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch and Interior Maharashtra, while the highest temperature of 44.8°C was recorded at Adilabad in Telangana.

Raising concerns over the impact of sandstorms and dust storms, primarily on solar power generation, former power secretary Razdan said the infrastructure security needs to be taken care of for the solar projects, which play a key role in meeting daytime peak demand. The concerns come in the backdrop of a massive thunderstorm in Rajasthan's Bikaner district on 30 May.

Rajasthan has India's second-largest solar power generation capacity with 30 GW of installed capacity out of the total 150 GW across the country.

"Heatwave has eased for now, but similar situations are expected to return in north-western and central parts of the country by mid-June," said Prasoon Singh, fellow and area convenor at The Energy Resources Institute (TERI).

Power demand for irrigation is also expected to rise, with paddy cultivation starting on 1 June across Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

This year's southwest monsoon is expected to be below normal at 90% of the 50-year average, impacting power demand, agriculture and rural demand.

"Amid a forecast of below normal monsoons, the area under water-intensive crops such as paddy may go down, and the area under less-water intensive crops such as pulses may see a pick-up. Along with this, an increase in diesel prices too will impact irrigation and cost dynamics for the farmers," said Sudhir Panwar, farm policy expert and former member of Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.

India remains heavily dependent on southwest monsoon, which accounts for over 70% of the country’s annual precipitation. Adequate rainfall supports the farm economy and boosts rural demand. However, with only around 55% of India’s net sown area currently irrigated, the remaining farmland continues to rely on rainfall. This assumes significance as any shortfall in monsoon rainfall could raise irrigation costs for farmers.

Former chief statistician Pronab Sen said: "Below normal rainfall in itself is not a major concern, but the spatial distribution of rainfall remains a critical factor. Uneven rainfall distribution would adversely impact rainfed regions where agriculture is heavily dependent on monsoon precipitation ultimately affecting farm income and rural livelihoods."

On Tuesday, the union minister of power Manohar Lal chaired a meeting of the consultative committee for power on grid stability. The committee deliberated on the emerging requirements of grid stability in view of India's growing electricity demand, large scale renewable energy integration and increasing share of inverter-based generation resources and base loads, said an official statement.