Putin, Trump, and a summit that ended in stalemate

On the morning of 15 August Russian president Vladimir Putin landed at Anchorage Airport in Alaska, a province which his nation sold to the US a century and half ago. The US president, standing on a red carpet, eagerly awaited his guest’s arrival, and Putin, alighting from the plane, walked sure-footedly towards Trump and set the tone and tempo of the summit with the opening line, “Good afternoon dear neighbour, good to see you." Till date Trump hasn’t accorded such honour to any of his Western allies.

Those accustomed to jumping to conclusions lost no time in busying themselves drawing positive conclusions from the “body language" of both the leaders. But they quickly got a rude jolt. The Alaska summit that began with heightened expectations failed to reach a conclusion leaving behind a fog of new concerns.

There’s a host of reasons for such a conclusion.

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Earlier it was thought that the summit would last for five to six hours but it ended within three hours. A day earlier Donald Trump claimed that if a cease-fire doesn’t happen he won’t be happy. He had earlier threatened Russia with harsher sanctions if it doesn’t agree to a cease-fire. However, his threats proved ineffective and his expectations gutted. During the press conference he grudgingly accepted that while they made some progress many important issues remained unresolved. Putin on his part hoped both the countries could work together on key concerns. The summit should be seen as a diplomatic thaw with little concrete outcomes. At most, Alaska can pave the way for another discussion. Trump said as much when he announced that he would be talking to the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Nato allies to fix a date and venue for further talks. In an interview to Fox News just before the Summit, Trump hinted that now it’s up to Zelensky to take a call on the future of his nation.

Does it raise the spectre of Zelensky ending up isolated?

Remember the way Trump and his deputy J. D. Vance pounced on hapless Zelensky, bullying him in full media glare at the White House. Zelensky clearly became a victim of American deception. Experts argue that last year in Istanbul, Turkiye, Russia, and Ukraine were on the verge of a deal but Zelensky stopped short of it on the assurance of US support.

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Ukraine is surviving with the help of European nations but as the conflict slides into an endless morass a depleted European Union will find it difficult to support this beleaguered nation. Putin understands Europe’s predicament and is in no hurry for a resolution of the conflict.

Another interesting fact during the Alaska Summit was Trump controlling his usual urge to hog the limelight by offering the opening slot to address the press conference to Putin. In a 12 minute press meet where journalists weren’t allowed to ask questions, Putin spoke for a little over eight minutes while Trump took less than four minutes. He ended in his characteristic style saying, “Vladimir I hope we meet soon." Never to miss an opportunity, pat came Putin’s reply in English, “This time in Moscow." The statement caught Trump off guard. He was rattled but quickly composed himself.

It was clear both the leaders had nothing to say.

But why didn’t the Summit reach any conclusion? It’s because the Russian president isn’t budging from his four core demands. He insists that a large portion of land Russia has annexed from Ukraine should be recognized as Russian territory along with 11-year-old Crimean annexation. There should be an immediate ban on Nato’s expansion, and sanctions on Russia should be immediately lifted.

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Trump can’t accept these demands and he does not have the political capital to force Ukraine or his Western allies to accept them. Trump is not bothered about lives being lost in Ukraine. His eyes are set on its minerals and agricultural products and he’s wary of increasing closeness between Moscow and Beijing. Brics is an emerging threat and if the group keeps gaining heft it may become a threat for the US.

Now let’s look at India. After the summit Trump said he won’t put an extra penalty on nations buying Russian oil. It’s not clear whether he referred to the 25% penalty he imposed or any new tariff that he plans. As the Alaska meet turns out to be a damp squib, New Delhi is keenly watching an unpredictable Trump and his next “Tughlaqi move".