Russia-Ukraine War: There is no peace until both sides see it as fair

“There is no deal until there’s a deal," was Trump’s take on the outcome after both parted, a signal that talks would go on.

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If sighs of relief were heaved in some world capitals, it was because the meeting did not go down in history as Yalta II; it was not a carve-up of a large landmass by big powers to suit their own grand agendas. 

For New Delhi, the blank drawn by the summit was a let-down, but only a minor one in the context of fraught relations with the US, which appears to have put trade talks with India on hold. In any case, Trump’s pre-summit portrayal of his oil squeeze as a tool of leverage over Moscow was duly met with eye-rolls. If the fate of his punitive levy due to kick in soon is no clearer today, nor is the likelihood of his proving to be a peacemaker who might earn a Nobel prize for it.

The trouble with a White House being seen as covetous of that award is the incentive it offers wily regimes to spark conflicts for US attention and favour. With trade in the picture, today’s dynamics of war and peace willy-nilly involve us all, though Ukraine’s top billing as a project is no surprise, given the Global North’s self-obsession and Nato’s involvement. 

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Trump briefed Kyiv as well as America’s Nato allies in Europe on his Putin parley. European leaders, insistent on Ukraine’s territorial integrity and keen on a say in any settlement, seem only tentatively relieved that America’s leader called the Alaska talks “productive." 

Post-summit, Trump posted this on Truth Social: “It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up." But he also told Fox News that he and Putin had discussed potential land swaps between the two warring sides, apart from a security guarantee for Ukraine. All considered, the odds seem slim that Russia will budge from parts of the former Soviet Republic its forces have occupied.

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A peace deal would be worthy of a medal only if a final settlement has the buy-in of those hit hardest by war. In Europe, Trump faces a high bar for what would satisfy war-weary locals. A clearer shot at success may lie in West Asia, where an entire population has been pushed to the edge by US-ally Israel. 

A rescue of Gaza’s hapless Palestinians would suffice to signal intent, while a fair balance of rights is easy to formulate. The Oslo peace process had yielded a Nobel in 1994 (before Israel’s rightist lurch took it apart) and an earnest push today by the White House for a just resolution that leaves neither side in despair could earn one too. Sure, it may face resistance in both the US and Israel, but leadership is about leading opinion, not being trapped by it; and the Iran-Israel war this summer was one that Trump can actually claim to have ended. 

As a geopolitical bonus, it would make it harder for the Global South to cast Uncle Sam as an imperialist bully. If Trump wants peace as part of his legacy, he’ll need to surprise the world. And Gaza will probably define his place in history more than Ukraine.