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Forecasters expect weather conditions to become more favourable during the latter half of June. Increased thunderstorm activity is likely between June 22 and June 28 across interior Karnataka, southern Tamil Nadu and parts of the Western Ghats.
Southwest monsoon stalls across India: Experts explain the slowdown.(IMD)India's southwest monsoon - which made its onset over Kerala on June 4, arriving three days later than its usual date and five days after the IMD's forecast - has recorded rainfall significantly below normal. India received 38% less rainfall than the long-term average between June 1 and June 17, raising concerns over a prolonged lull.
The southwest monsoon - which accounts for over 70% of the country's annual rainfall, gradually advanced across several regions during the first week of June. However, its progress stalled soon afterwards, with rainfall activity weakening across the country.
What is preventing the monsoon from advancing further?
Meteorologists say the lack of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal has stalled the monsoon's movement.
“Currently, there is no weather system over the Bay of Bengal. There needs to be a low-pressure area or a depression to give the monsoon a push in the eastern parts of the country. It is also needed to pull the monsoon across the western coast from the Arabian Sea,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at private weather forecaster Skymet, as quoted by Hindustan Times.
He added that monsoon activity is likely to resume after June 22 or 23.
“A pressure area is likely to develop during the time in Central Bay of Bengal,” he said, adding that Mumbai may not receive the monsoon until around June 25.
When is the monsoon expected to revive?
Forecasters expect weather conditions to become more favourable during the latter half of June. Increased thunderstorm activity is likely between June 22 and June 28 across interior Karnataka, southern Tamil Nadu and parts of the Western Ghats.
Rainfall is also expected to intensify along the Kerala and Karnataka coastlines, with wet conditions gradually extending northwards towards Mumbai.
Could early July bring stronger monsoon activity?
A more pronounced revival is anticipated between June 29 and July 5. During this period, stronger monsoon currents may trigger heavy rainfall over the Western Ghats of southern Kerala and the Konkan region before spreading further inland.
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Weather experts remain optimistic that the expected formation of a pressure system over the Bay of Bengal could help restore momentum to the monsoon and improve rainfall distribution across the country in the coming weeks.
When will the monsoon reach Mumbai?
Large parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, continue to await meaningful monsoon showers. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that no major advancement of the monsoon is expected over the next few days.
“The moisture content over the Arabian Sea is currently weak. We are expecting it to progress on the western side from June 23,” IMD DG M Mohapatra told HT.
Although the IMD declared the onset of the monsoon over Maharashtra on June 8, rainfall has remained largely absent across the state. The situation has prompted the state government to advise farmers against rushing into sowing activities.
Under normal circumstances, the monsoon reaches Mumbai by June 11.
About the Author
Kanishka Singharia
Kanishka Singharia is a Senior Content Producer at Mint with a passion for news, trends, and the stories shaping the digital world. She specialises in spotting viral narratives by constantly tracking social media platforms and turning them into engaging, reader-friendly stories. Her work ranges from fast-paced breaking updates to sensitive human-interest features, blending speed with clarity. <br><br> With over four years of experience in news and trend reporting, Kanishka has worked with leading organisations such as Hindustan Times and Times Now. She moves seamlessly between profiling business leaders and telling the stories of everyday people, covering national developments just as effortlessly as the memes and conversations that dominate online culture. <br><br> She also reports on real estate developments and civic challenges in major urban hubs like Bengaluru, Delhi, and Gurugram. Her coverage frequently explores the struggles of startup founders, inspiring journeys of CEOs, and the experiences of candidates dealing with the complexities of visa processes. <br><br> Kanishka holds an undergraduate degree in Journalism from Delhi University and a diploma from the Indian Institute of Mass Communication. Rarely offline, she spends much of her time scrolling through X, LinkedIn, Reddit, Instagram, and Facebook in search of the next big story. When she finally logs off, she enjoys binge-watching shows and exploring cafes in pursuit of good food and better conversations.
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