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ARTICLE AD BOX
Summary
West Bengal has witnessed a decline in economic and governance standards despite strong electoral mandates. The state must transition to an investment-led growth model, restore fiscal health, and regain investor confidence to achieve sustained renewal.
As a non-resident Bengali of my generation, I have witnessed with deep anguish the steady decline of West Bengal from its once-prominent position in India’s economic and intellectual landscape. What has been even more disheartening is the repeated pattern of large electoral mandates being given to successive governments—first the Left Front, and then the Trinamool Congress—followed by a growing sense of unmet expectations and a sense of repeated betrayal of trust.
From hope in 2011 to disillusionment in 2026
When Mamata Banerjee came to power in 2011, she carried with her a powerful promise of change: an end to decades of Left Front rule, which many believe had pushed the state into fiscal stress, industrial stagnation, and governance fatigue. The mandate was not merely political—it was emotional. Given her image, it was driven by hope for cleaner governance, renewed growth, and dignity in public life.
Fifteen years later, that hope feels significantly eroded for many citizens, even though Mamata Banerjee herself continues to retain personal popularity among large sections. Over time, concerns have grown around institutional accountability, allegations of corruption at various levels, and a perceived normalization of political influence and deep-rooted corruption in local administration. Many citizens also speak of deteriorating public interfaces with the state—ranging from municipal inefficiency to everyday interactions marked by bureaucratic opacity and, at most times, arrogance.
The tragic RG Kar Medical College incident became a focal point in public discourse not only because of the crime itself, but also due to the intense debate around institutional response, law enforcement credibility, and allegations—widely discussed but contested in nature—regarding political proximity and administrative handling of the aftermath.
During my recent travels across smaller towns of the state, conversations with ordinary citizens—from auto drivers to domestic workers—reveal recurring concerns: law and order, local-level coercion, perceived corruption, and declining efficiency in municipal services that directly affect daily life.
The missed economic opportunity
Economically, Trinamool inherited a state already burdened by decades of industrial decline under the Left. However, critics argue that the opportunity to structurally transform Bengal’s economy over the last 15 years has not been fully realized.
A large share of the state’s fiscal resources continues to be absorbed by debt servicing and welfare commitments, leaving relatively limited fiscal space for capital expenditure. This has constrained the creation of long-term productive assets such as infrastructure, industrial parks, and logistics networks as well as crowding in of private capex.
Comparative state data often highlights that states such as Tamil Nadu (arguably India’s best run state on developmental parameters) and Gujarat allocate a significantly higher share of expenditure toward capital formation (18% vs 8%). Bengal’s relatively lower capex intensity has implications for long-term growth, job creation, and private investment attraction.
In simplified terms, if Bengal’s economy—now estimated at roughly ₹18 lakh crore—were to significantly increase capex to levels comparable with better-performing industrial states, it could potentially unlock ₹30,000 crore in additional annual investment. Over time, such spending tends to have a multiplier effect of 3x over three years, as per the Reserve Bank of India, crowding in private investment and raising medium-term growth trajectories.
Despite continuity in governance, West Bengal has struggled to break out of what appears to be a structural cycle: high debt, high interest payments, high welfare doles, constrained fiscal flexibility, limited industrial expansion, and moderate growth. The underlying issue is not merely fiscal; it is strategic. The choice has leaned more toward consumption-led welfare expansion, rather than an investment-led transformation.
By contrast, states such as Tamil Nadu and Gujarat have, over time, pursued more balanced models combining welfare with sustained capital formation, enabling stronger industrial ecosystems and higher long-term growth rates.
The road ahead: a crucial test for the BJP
As West Bengal now enters another phase of political transition, the responsibility on any incoming alternative government, particularly the BJP, is significant. A mandate for change must not become another missed opportunity.
Some critical priorities:
1. Shift to an investment-led growth model
West Bengal must transition from a consumption-heavy fiscal structure to one that prioritizes capex and productive asset creation. With a large internal market and strong agricultural base, the state is well-positioned to become both an industrial hub and a high-value services economy.
2. Build industrial scale and ecosystems
There is significant scope to expand sectors such as IT, logistics, textiles, leather, and light engineering. However, this requires ability to appreciate the big picture, a coordinated ecosystem development rather than isolated incentives. UP under Yogi is a case in point.
3. Create manufacturing depth
West Bengal must aim to build integrated manufacturing clusters similar to those seen in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu, supported by infrastructure, skilled labour pipelines, and regulatory efficiency.
4. Restore fiscal health
A gradual but firm effort toward reducing debt burdens and rationalizing expenditure is needed. Fiscal space is the foundation for sustained capital investment and long-term growth.
5. Rebuild investor confidence
Perhaps the most critical challenge is restoring trust. Investors—large and small—need predictable governance, strong rule of law, and freedom from perceived coercion or administrative arbitrariness. Without this, no policy framework will succeed.
A final word of caution
At the same time, any new political force must recognize Bengal’s deeply-rooted cultural identity. Attempts—real or perceived—to impose external cultural preferences or homogenize local traditions are likely to be counterproductive and resisted.
Equally important is the need for a credible, locally based leadership supported by professional, non-partisan advisors with administrative and economic expertise. Imported political leadership without local legitimacy may struggle to connect with the electorate.
A decisive mandate must not be followed by actions driven by symbolism or political score-settling. This electorate has repeatedly shown that it rewards hope, but also punishes disappointment.
West Bengal today stands at a familiar crossroads. The question is no longer whether change is possible, but whether this change—if it comes—will finally be converted into sustained economic and institutional renewal.
With the promise of a genuine “double engine sarkar” now a reality, the BJP has a unique opportunity to achieve this.
Prabal Basu Roy is a Sloan Fellow of the London Business School and a board member.
English (US) ·