The headline of this week has been weeks in the making

Alas, in a Trumpian world, good sense is a scarce commodity—where the will of one man alone prevails.

Millennials may recall from history books that India and the US were often at loggerheads during the Cold War. Today’s US rhetoric carries an echo of that era when spats and sharp exchanges were commonplace, reflected in the shrill statements of White House trade adviser Peter Navarro and treasury secretary Scott Bessent.

The 25% additional levies are coercive—aimed at forcing India to bend and surrender its sovereign right to prioritize its people’s interests. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, in a Freudian slip, ended up calling a spade a spade when she described them as “sanctions" while touting Trump’s public measures to bring peace between Russia and Ukraine.

The last time Washington pulled the sanctions gun on India was after the 1998 Pokhran nuclear tests.

So, where does this leave India-US ties—once billed as “the most consequential" in the world? What about the India-US joint statement, endorsed by Trump himself during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's February visit to the US, reaffirming “the strength of the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, anchored in mutual trust, shared interests, goodwill, and robust engagement of their citizens?"

Trump can disown them as easily as he disowns anything with Joe Biden's name on it. A week may be a long time in politics, so the saying goes; in Trumpian times, even 24 hours feels like an eternity. The message is blunt: All agreements are open to negotiations—what matters is whether you toe the Trump line.

What are India’s options?

First is accelerating reforms—goods and services tax (GST) slab rationalization, export-market diversification, rethinking participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade pact, and repairing economic ties with rival China are some measures on which New Delhi has already started working. Further measures could include expediting trade deals, such as the one with the European Union.

While India may be able to absorb a 1% dip in its gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the potential job losses in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles could prove to be the real pain point.

Second, keep the channels open. India, after all, needs the US for technology and investments to leapfrog towards its Viksit Bharat (developed economy) vision by 2047. A rift with Washington could strain investment flows, even with the country’s reputation as one of the fastest-growing major economies.

Third, perhaps someone ought to sit Trump down and explain that the logic of the US-India strategic partnership is more relevant today than ever before.

China seeks to displace the US as the pre-eminent global power—its advances in chipmaking and artificial intelligence (AI), its formidable military build-up, and its control of critical supply chains, especially rare-earth minerals, are well documented.

It’s a no-brainer that New Delhi is Washington's natural partner—penalizing it will not help “Make America Great Again (MAGA)". It is Trump’s mistaken notion that pressure on India will somehow compel President Vladimir Putin to abandon his pursuits in Ukraine—and burnish his own claim to the Nobel Peace Prize.

If Trump skips a Quad meeting in India while lining up talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, not just India but all of Asia, in fact, the world, must sit up and take note.

Meanwhile, other developments that should raise more than a few eyebrows.

Exxon held secret talks with Rosneft

US-based Exxon Mobil Corp. and Russia's state-controlled oil company Rosneft could get back into business should a peace deal with Ukraine materialize. There are many variables at play here, but talks—serious talks—are taking place behind the scenes. Should the Texas oil giant return to Russia, it would signal rapprochement with the US.

It is not clear how Europe feels about this—Trump himself is also blowing hot and cold, alternating between placating Putin and threatening him with sanctions to in pursuit of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

According to news reports, one reason for Washington to support an Exxon-Rosneft deal is to get Russia to buy American technology rather than Chinese as part of a broader strategy to isolate Beijing and weaken or sever its ties with Moscow.

Modi warms up to China

Modi’s visits to Japan and China have acquired added weight. India needs reliable partners, and Japan has consistently supported its rise. A revamped defence pact is reportedly in the works, along with fresh pledges of Japanese investments.

His second stop is Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. With Trump’s deep suspicion of BRICS, Washington will watch every word and gesture at the gathering. Xi, for his part, is expected to roll out a grand welcome for both Putin and Modi—who is returning to China after seven years.

Trump “welcomes" Chinese students

Remember the Trump administration announcing plans to revoke visas for Chinese students in May? This week, there was a major volte-face on that. The US President said he was opening up American universities to 600,000 Chinese students because Washington and Beijing shared a “very important relationship", signalling a dramatic shift from his administration's “America first" policy.

The decision shocked and annoyed some of his staunchest MAGA camp loyalists, including far-right activist Laura Loomer. But Trump’s move could be less a principled stand than a bargaining chip in his trade negotiations with Beijing.

Is Gaza a genocide?

Israel insists otherwise, but the world is slowly growing a conscience. This week, UN staff sent a letter to Volker Türk, head of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, urging him to declare what is happening in Gaza an unfolding genocide.

Israel, accused of blocking food and medical aid from reaching Gazans, has rejected all such claims, invoking its right to self-defence after the 2023 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people and left 251 taken hostage. Yet, that “self-defence" has so far claimed nearly 63,000 Palestinian lives.