The right choice, baby: Family size aspirations mustn’t go unmet

The UNFPA, in itsState of World Population 2025 report claims that the problem is neither over-population nor under-population, but instead a crisis of reproductive agency and inability to fulfil one’s choice. Our essay aims to go beyond symptoms and explore the deeper malaise that has accompanied economic growth and industrialization across the world. Our core hypothesis is that the rapid decline in fertility is largely on account of a breakdown of the family structure—one of the oldest institutions known to human society.

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The UNFPA report frames reproductive agency primarily in terms of whether an individual is able to fulfil their desired fertility, highlighting both under- and over-achievement of personal fertility goals as the crisis. It is based on an online cross-country survey that asks about the desired number of children, difference between ideal and actual fertility, reasons for or against parenthood, access to reproductive health, etc.

In India, the survey covered 1,048 adults aged 18-88 years in urban and rural areas. It highlights economic concerns like financial limitations (38%), housing constraints (22%), unemployment/job security (21%) and insufficient childcare (18%) as major hold-backs. Consequently, the report places much emphasis on improving reproductive agency through solutions that include housing, job security and financial enablers.

Viewing the problem of fertility under-achievement through just an economic lens is myopic. For instance, in Sweden, a high-income country that is top ranked by Unicef for family-friendly policies, 17% of people expect to have fewer children than their ideal, higher than the all-country average of 11%. This suggests that even if established economic burdens ease, psychological, cultural and structural factors still affect fertility outcomes.

Also Read: What it means to have a fertility rate of 2

Focusing on economic circumstances alone offers an incomplete understanding of fertility challenges, particularly in the context of India’s rapidly crumbling traditional family structure. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS), a large and nationally representative health survey conducted since 1990, allows us some deeper insights into the nature of the demographic transition unfolding around us. It reveals a steady decline in both the desired and actual fertility rate over time.

Rapid nuclearization of families and rampant urbanization across the country have eroded the institutional arrangement of the traditional family that encouraged and supported the bearing and rearing of children. The ethos of ‘It takes a village to raise a child’ has been replaced by struggling urban couples whose fertility-aspiration barriers are not strictly financial, but increasingly social and logistical.

Young parents nowadays have to fully absorb all the costs of raising a child, which is one of the most labour-intensive activities. This is further compounded by the intensification of parenting, as the UNFPA report also suggests, raising costs further. By contrast, in many rural areas, child-rearing is still actively shared and supported by extended family and community members, easing the burden on the primary care-giver, typically the mother, and making it easier to achieve fertility as well as work aspirations.

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The urban-rural difference in the gap between the desired and actual fertility of women has been widening with time. As per NFHS-4 and 5, the desired number of children has remained stable at 2.2 in rural and at 2 in urban areas. However, the gap between desired and actual fertility is much wider in urban areas (0.4) than in rural areas (0.1). Urban parents are more dependent on formal, often expensive (or missing) childcare systems and face greater challenges in achieving a work-life balance.

In contrast, the higher and rising labour force participation among rural women (42%) showcases the real choices and reproductive agency that familial support offers, helping them reconcile fertility and workforce participation.

Urban women continue to have significantly lower labour force participation (25%) and their actual fertility rate had fallen below the replacement level two decades ago! It is important to recall that urban women, including those working outside the household, continue to spend significant time daily on care-giving and household chores—and, as a consequence, have significantly less leisure time compared to their male counterparts.

Meanwhile ‘housewives’ continue to see their value being discounted by society, despite contributing significantly within the household.

Also Read: Equitable access will help improve reproductive health

Does the gap between desired and actual fertility differ across wealth groups?

The data shows that this gap widens with rising wealth levels, thereby challenging the assumption that economic limitations are the primary barriers to achieving desired fertility. In a rapidly changing society where traditional systems of familial support are disappearing, the state can and must facilitate the development of childcare, parental leave and financial assistance to support families.

However, the ability of contractual market institutions or the government to function as a replacement for family support remains limited, as the experience of affluent nations shows.

India faces multiple challenges that overlap: regional variations in fertility and ageing, the imperative of inclusive economic growth and the need to deliver social services to a large population. Fertility trends are not just about demographics; they reflect transformations in health, education and socio-economic realities.

While improvements in access to reproductive health services and social security systems are indispensable, overlooking the social transformation of families and its impact on fertility aspirations can have long-term consequences for the well-being of individuals and society.

Also Read: Women’s participation in the labour force: It’s too risky to let it languish

With a GDP per capita of $11,159 (purchasing power parity, 2024; World Bank), India must plan to grow rich before growing old. Alongside investments in human capital, reproductive health and opportunity creation, policy foresight is needed for a careful assessment of the implications of a rising dependency ratio on state capacity, fiscal resources, care systems and the long-term sustainability of social protection measures.

Most importantly, our policies must support the institution of family that is under tremendous pressure. To discount the significant care-work within families is to discount the future of our society. India’s economic growth must have Indian characteristics and values. We must not repeat the mistakes made by nations that are economically ahead of us.

The authors are, respectively, member and young professional, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).