The wheels that make a political juggernaut roll

In May 2014, when Modi took the reins at the Centre, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with all its allies was in power in just seven states. Today, it rules 22 states. So, how did it achieve this? Some call it a victory of communalism. But is the explanation really that simple?

In 1988, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) lent Modi to the BJP that gave him with the charge of Gujarat. His first test was its municipal polls a year later. The BJP won the Ahmedabad mayoral post for the first time, marking the start of its victory march.

At that time, there was a big bootlegger in Gujarat, Abdul Latif, who contested independently on five councillor seats, and his supporters called him a ‘caged tiger’. Modi made the Latif issue a poll plank, and the BJP won. Those who saw this from communal prism missed the point: Latif wasn’t a war hero like Abdul Hamid or a scientist like Abdul Kalam. He was a history-sheeter. How can his victory or defeat be a win or loss for secularism?

It’s here that Modi established a new political template: targeting election issues, profiling the political rivals and delivering on the manifesto the moment you get the power.

Today, this is the reason why states—from Uttarakhand to Odisha and from Garo hills to Gujarat—have turned saffron. West Bengal is the latest one. Election Commission data shows that in 2021 assembly polls, BJP secured 37.97% votes. Farsighted observers knew that by the next election, Mamata Banerjee would be in trouble. So, are all the Hindus voting for the BJP communal? Not at all.

Let me narrate an incident. A colleague’s father is a retired professor. A local goon usurped a part of his property in Burdwan. Earlier, the goon called himself a worker of the Left Party. He, however, became a Trinamool foot soldier the moment Mamata came to power. When the goon misbehaved, he went to a police station to report, but he was only berated. In Bengal there are thousands of such stories of ‘cut money’ and land grab. Now, why would such people vote for Trinamool?

To ensure a win, the BJP learnt from its past mistakes. Home minister Amit Shah led from the front; he did 66 rallies and reviewed preparations at each booth. Union environment minister BhupendraYadav and party general secretary Sunil Bansal assisted him. BJP leaders avoided attacking Mamata directly; the focus was on misgovernance and misbehaviour of Trinamool cadre, which resonated with the masses.

You may ask why Suvendu Adhikari and others often invoked terms like ‘Hindu’ and ‘Sanatan’ in their campaign? If they were wrong, what should we say about the Trinamool lawmaker Sayani Ghosh? In her rallies, she sang: “Mere dil mein Kaaba aur ankhon mein Madina, (Kaaba in my heart, Madina in my eyes).” We can’t blame just one party for communal polarization.

No doubt the BJP is saddled with additional responsibility after winning Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha. According to the NITI Aayog, in fiscal year 2024, none of the eastern states could make it to the top five continuously developing states. Bihar and Odisha are among India’s 10 poorest states. Bengal is better, but faces many challenges.

Now let’s see the deeper political consequences of Chaudhary’s rise in Bihar and Adhikari’s arrival in Bengal. Next year, seven key states will go to the polls. Of these, five—Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Gujarat and Goa—are BJP-ruled. In the other states—Punjab and Himachal Pradesh—a resurgent BJP would give anything to wrest control. Ang (Bihar), Bang (West Bengal) and Kalinga (Odisha), along with the North-East, account for 128 Lok Sabha seats. In this belt, Jharkhand is now the only opposition-ruled state, with 14 Lok Sabha seats. Even so, the opposition holds about 51 parliamentary seats across the region. For the BJP, this remains one of the few large geographies offering room to expand its tally ahead of the 2029 general elections.

If the opposition wants to stall the BJP juggernaut, it must amend its strategy and approach. West Bengal shows that the days of stale allegations and hollow emotionality are over. It’s impossible to win without a sound strategy, cohesion, a direct public connect and an able leadership.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.