The world dodges another war—for now

The all-caps threat—Trump’s signature leadership style—urged Iranians to “KEEP PROTESTING", “TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!", and even “MIGA" (Make Iran Great Again).

But Iran is no Venezuela. Any military action against the Islamic Republic would have consequences for the entire West Asian region. As expected, subsequent reports in the Financial Times said Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar had persuaded Trump to hold off from attacking the country.

“We told Washington that an attack on Iran would open the way for a series of grave blowbacks in the region," news reports quoted an unidentified Saudi official as saying.

The logic of the Arab states is simple: A US strike on Iran could unleash chaos and raise the risk of the region spinning out of control. But a defeated Iran would also leave Israel as the undisputed regional hegemon—pushing Arab states permanently into second place. A completely undesirable outcome for them.

For now, Trump appears to be holding back. Still, some military personnel have reportedly been moved out of the major US base in Qatar, and staff at US missions in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been warned to exercise caution.

Meanwhile, reports suggest Iran’s brutal crackdown has, for now, largely quelled the protests. It remains difficult to assess the ground situation due to an internet blackout—one that appears to serve only US interests, as much of the information emerging comes from foreign, largely Western, media.

What is broadly known is this: Protests that began over economic hardship—especially spiralling inflation—spread across all 31 provinces. Some estimates suggest between 2,500 and 3,000 people may have been killed in clashes with security forces, with many thousands detained.

These are the largest and most widespread protests since 2022, when demonstrations erupted following the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman detained for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly.

What makes these protests different is the apparent shift in support. The trading class—the bazaaris—long considered a pillar of the regime, backing through financial support, appears to be forming the backbone of the protests this time.

The authorities also appear weaker than before, after Israel decimated Hamas and Hezbollah, killed several senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders, and the US bombed key Iranian nuclear sites in 2025.

The regime has also lost a key ally in Syria, after Bashar al-Assad’s government collapsed in 2024. Together, these developments have dented the regime’s image at home.

However, none of this bodes well for India.

Beyond ensuring the safe evacuation of its nearly 10,000 citizens in Iran, New Delhi risks losing a key regional partner—with serious geopolitical consequences.

India has invested in Iran’s Chabahar port to bypass Pakistan and access landlocked Afghanistan and central Asia. The port was also meant to link New Delhi to the International North-South Transport Corridor, giving India access to Russia.

Iran has, at times, aligned with India’s interests against Pakistan. Recall how India, Iran and Russia backed the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan after the Taliban seized Kabul in 1996.

More recently, in 2024, tensions flared between Iran and Pakistan after Tehran struck what it described as “Iranian terrorists on Pakistani soil". Islamabad retaliated, calling it “an egregious violation of international law and the spirit of bilateral relations". The crisis, however, was swiftly defused.

Trump has repeatedly tried to weaken this partnership. In February 2025, Trump threatened sanctions on countries providing “any degree of economic or financial relief" to Iran, explicitly including those linked to the Chabahar port project. India secured a waiver until 26 April 2026, but that reprieve now looks fragile.

In 2018, New Delhi was forced to “zero out" its oil purchases from Iran after Trump, during his first term, withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Iran subsequently turned increasingly towards China. Trump has again threatened tariffs on countries trading with Iran, raising concerns in New Delhi that levies could exceed 50%.

Most critically, prolonged instability in Iran risks spilling over into West Asia—a region vital to India for energy supplies, remittances, and investments. Between nine and 10 million Indians live in the region. With India already under US pressure to reduce purchases of Russian oil, any disruption in West Asia would drive up fuel prices at home, feeding inflation and weighing on economic growth.

All in all, it will be a nightmare for New Delhi.

Trump gets the Nobel Peace Prize, as a gift

Trump’s long-cherished dream of a Nobel Peace Prize appears to have been realized—albeit by a circuitous and not entirely above-board route.

Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader and the official recipient of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, gave her medal to the US President on 15 January, describing it as “a recognition for his unique commitment to our freedom".

The gesture came barely a week after the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Trump, standing beside Machado, wearing a broad smile and holding the medal, needed no words; the image said it all.

According to reports, this is the first time in history that a Nobel Peace Prize laureate has voluntarily handed over the medal to another individual.

The Nobel Committee, for its part, was quick to reiterate that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred, shared, or revoked. In a statement, it said the decision to award a Nobel Prize is final and permanent under the statutes of the Nobel Foundation, which do not allow appeals.

The Committee also stressed that it does not comment on laureates' actions or statements after the award—underscoring that, once announced, a Nobel Prize cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred to others.

Still, given Trump’s well-documented contempt for conventions and rules, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is—for all practical purposes—now his.

One would certainly like to see someone try and take it back.

US envoy Sergio Gor presents credentials to President Murmu

India finally has a new US ambassador—almost a year after Eric Garcetti stepped down. Sergio Gor, who presented his credentials to President Droupadi Murmu on 14 January, takes over the post at just 38, making him the youngest US ambassador to India. His biggest asset: his proximity to Trump.

A day before the formal ceremony, Gor delivered a speech that carefully ticked all the right boxes. One line that stood out was his observation that “real friends can disagree but always resolve their differences in the end".

Trade clearly sits high on the agenda. Gor said negotiations on a trade deal would continue, signalling a possible sense of urgency on both sides. But he also underlined the Trump administration’s emphasis on reciprocity. “We are raising the standard for diplomacy itself. That means fair trade, mutual respect, and shared security," he said.

Significantly, Gor also invited India to join Pax Silica, a US-led initiative to secure critical minerals supply chains—an overt example of friend-shoring under the Trump doctrine.

Overall, it has been a positive start. Given his closeness to Trump, Gor could prove useful in untangling some of the more persistent knots in the bilateral relationship.

Elizabeth Roche is an associate professor of practice at O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana.

For more of her columns, read The International Angle.