The world needs jobs for a billion-plus people set to enter the workforce: Can we meet the challenge?

The former feel urgent, but the latter reshape the system. That is not to say crises don’t matter. But we cannot become casualties of the slow burn simply because the immediate crisis burns hotter or dominates more headlines. Ignore the slow burn long enough, and it becomes an inferno.

One of those forces is already in motion. Over the next 10 to 15 years, 1.2 billion people in developing countries will come of working age. On current trajectories, these economies are expected to generate only about 400 million jobs over that period—leaving a staggering gap. This is often framed as a development challenge and it is. It is also an economic challenge. And it is increasingly a national security challenge.

At this year’s Davos conference, it was striking how easily this issue was brushed aside. It must not be ignored at other top-level forums such as the G-7 and G-20.

If we invest early in people and connect them to productive work, this vast new generation can build dignified lives and become a foundation for growth and stability. If we do not, the consequences are predictable: pressure on institutions, irregular migration, conflict and rising insecurity as young people reach for any path available to them.

The World Bank Group is pursuing the first path with urgency, bringing together public finance, knowledge, private capital and risk-management tools around a jobs strategy built on three pillars.

First, creating human and physical infrastructure. Without reliable physical infrastructure jobs never materialize. Investment in people is equally critical. For example, a skills centre in Bhubaneswar—in partnership with the government and private sector—trains thousands each year. Because the preparation is aligned with real market demand, nearly all graduates secure employment—or go on to create jobs themselves, supported by engineering, manufacturing and intellectual property training.

Second, creating a business-friendly environment. Clear rules and predictable regulation reduce uncertainty and improve the ease of doing business. Jobs are generated when entrepreneurs and firms have the confidence to invest and expand. Public resources can help unlock that process, but job creation at scale depends on the private sector—especially the small and medium businesses that generate most employment.

This leads to the third pillar: helping businesses scale. Through our private-sector arms, we provide equity, financing, guarantees and political risk insurance. We focus where job potential is greatest across the five sectors that consistently generate employment at scale: infrastructure and energy, agribusiness, primary healthcare, tourism and value-added manufacturing.

This is not a zero-sum proposition. By 2050, over 85% of the world’s population will live in developing countries. That represents not only the largest expansion of the global labour force in history, but the largest growth in future consumers, producers and markets. Whatever the motivations are, there is a role and reward for putting energy and resources into this effort.

Developing countries benefit because jobs create income, stability and dignity. They strengthen domestic demand and give young people a reason to invest in their future at home rather than look elsewhere.

Developed countries gain too. As developing economies grow, they become stronger trade partners, more resilient supply-chain anchors and more stable neighbours. Growth in those markets expands global demand and reduces the pressures that drive irregular migration and insecurity—outcomes that carry real economic and political costs far beyond borders.

For the private sector, this represents one of the largest opportunities of the coming decades. Rapid population growth means sustained demand for energy, food systems, healthcare, infrastructure, housing and manufacturing. Development institutions can play a catalyzing role by financing infrastructure, supporting regulatory reform and reducing risk.

If we get this right, the low-frequency forces shaping the world—in this case demographics—become engines of growth and stability rather than sources of volatility and risk. If we get it wrong, we will continue to chase crises—reacting to outcomes that were visible years or even decades in advance. The choice is not whether these forces will shape the future. They will. The choice is whether we act early and bend them towards opportunity—or wait until they arrive as instability. ©Bloomberg

The author is president of the World Bank Group.