Trump’s Iran war exposes limits of American power

Iran proves five-thousand-year-old civilizations don’t fold up in a few days of bombing. On the opening day, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed along with his 44 top leaders. The US and Israel thought that like in Iraq, people would revolt in Iran. But the reverse happened.

People took to the streets to mourn Khamenei’s death. Iran retaliated with its drones and missiles. It happened because Iran decentralized administrative command. Now, every area commander is free to make independent decisions. A visibly irritated US and Israel increased their intensity of bombing barrage. It was carried out so irresponsibly that on 28 February two bombs were dropped on a girls’ school, killing 168 students and 14 teachers.

The newly-elected Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to avenge the martyrdom of these girls. He has publicly vowed to punish Trump and seek reparation. You are free to consider it a boast of a rank novice but it’s clear that Washington hasn’t come across such a fierce counter-attack in years. This has severely dented US’s aura of invincibility.

Under the US shadow, the Gulf monarchies created an oasis of peace and prosperity by filling their own coffers and that of the western nations. The hollowness of the arrangement is visible today. The Gulf States’s image is in tatters, while the US and Israel are bleeding economically. According to a CNN report, $11 billion was lost in the first six days of the conflict.

The Iranian attack has severely damaged US bases in West Asia. They have exhausted one third of the entire global stockpile of missiles. Meanwhile, US rival China is sitting pretty with its resources and forces intact. Situation is so dire that the US has to summon its missile batteries stationed in South Korea and Japan. How will the US defend South Korea or Japan against any Chinese aggression? The current conflict shows what the Russia-Ukraine conflict established. Today’s wars can’t be won by heavy weapons and large armies. Even the smallest of countries can employ cheap drones and new technologies to deny the powerful a clear cut victory.

To neutralize just a $20,000 Iranian drone ‘Shaheed’, Pentagon has to employ a $4-million missile. If the war persists Israel would be devastated and the US can spiral into an economic downturn. Both the countries are facing diplomatic backlash too. Spain has “permanently closed” its embassy in Tel Aviv and Italy too has declined to join the war against Iran.

As the war progresses, diplomatic temperatures globally are rising. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s ill-conceived war has jolted the global economy. On Saturday the global oil prices were hovering well over $100 per barrel. Share markets globally are in a tizzy and energy supplies are strained. Trump faces a backlash. Nearly 70% of Americans are unhappy with the war.

Some experts think this war signals US’s decline.

It may not be far-fetched. Since the 9/11 Twin Tower attack, the US is engaged in costly, detrimental wars. After destroying Iraq its forces replaced Taliban with Taliban in Afghanistan after two decades of futile operations. Even in Syria, Somalia and Libya they didn’t get the desired results. The US is not meant for long wars. Meanwhile, every protracted US military venture is a blessing in disguise for China. Beijing hasn’t fought a war since 1979 and has focussed its energies on trade and commerce.

Let’s talk about India. Our 50% oil and 90% of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) comes from the Strait of Hormuz. Iran closed the strait for everyone except China. But after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts vessels with Indian flags have been given special concessions. If the Gulf remains closed for some more days we would start facing fresh challenges. The government is already moving cautiously. Restriction on commercial use of gas and delay in LPG bookings are in place.

Many countries in Europe, Asia and Africa are facing similar problems. If the present conflict persists, a Covid-19 like shockwave awaits us. The blame lies squarely with Trump and Netanyahu. However, it’s not them but the vulnerable around the world who’ll suffer.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.