Trump tantrums push Europe to look east

In EU President Ursula von der Leyen’s own words: “We are creating a market of 2 billion people. This is a tale of two giants—the world's second- and fourth-largest economies. Two giants who choose partnership in a true win-win fashion. A strong message that cooperation is the best answer to global challenges."

It wouldn’t be wrong to say that India and the EU had almost given up on the free trade agreement—first in 2013, when they hit pause, and later in 2015, after the EU played tough over the trial of two Italian marines who shot Indian fishermen off the Kerala coast in 2012.

It was only after the covid-19 pandemic hit—and with it the realization that the over-concentration of supply chains in one part of the world can seriously compromise global production lines—that the decks were cleared for talks to restart.

The two sides revived negotiations in 2022, but pressed the accelerator after US President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 and began slapping (literally) friend-and-foe-agnostic tariffs.

Together, India and the EU represent a combined market of nearly $27 trillion and about 25% of global gross domestic product (GDP).

Wondering if we—India and the EU—should thank Trump for playing midwife here? Perhaps China also deserves a little credit, given the growing realization in the EU that Beijing is hollowing out its manufacturing base.

Both India and the EU, while celebrating, are being careful not to needle or goad Trump with their words. The US is one of India’s top five trade partners, with bilateral trade exceeding $100 billion, so New Delhi is being cautious not to gloat. The same holds true for Europe.

But anyone seeing the picture of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, von der Leyen, and European Commission President Antonio Costa holding interlocked hands aloft, smiling almost triumphantly, can be forgiven for thinking otherwise.

Especially considering that the India-EU deal was announced days after Trump’s open humiliation of Europe at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, and his description of India in August 2025 as a dead economy. One is reminded of the saying—Revenge is best served cold.

The India-EU agreement has raised hackles in Washington. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said he was disappointed by Europe’s decision, arguing that it showed Europe had put trade ahead of the interests of the Ukrainian people. After all, 25% of the 50% tariffs the US slapped on India were due to New Delhi buying discounted Russian crude.

Bessent told CNBC that Europe had been buying refined products made in India using sanctioned Russian oil supplies and had been unwilling to match higher US tariffs on Indian goods because it was separately negotiating a trade agreement.

For those wondering what this means for you—the reader—European cars are set to get cheaper. So are drinks, including wines and spirits. A toast to that.

One caveat: the India-EU deal still needs to be ratified by all 27 EU member states and approved by the European Parliament. This means it will likely take about a year—until early 2027 at least—for the agreement to come into force.

Still, the deal has been clinched, and there is much to look forward to. For India, which is aiming to upgrade itself to Viksit Bharat status by 2047, this pact is a big deal, with significant technology and other spillover benefits as well.

All in all, it is a time to celebrate.

British PM prepares for his Chinese charm offensive

While Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa were in India, another European leader—British Prime Minister Keir Starmer—was flying to Beijing.

Trump’s tantrums are making even unpredictable China look reasonable and a credible alternative.

Starmer’s four-day visit is the first by a British PM in eight years. Former PM Theresa May last visited in 2018—during Trump’s first term.

The trip follows an earlier visit this month by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, which reset ties with Beijing. China lifted tariffs on Canadian canola seed imports, while Canada allowed Chinese electric vehicle imports.

Carney’s visit and the deals have angered Trump—already incensed by his Davos speech—who has threatened more tariffs on Canada if it proceeds with the agreements. There are also reports that the US is now in touch with some Canadian separatists, seeking the separation of Alberta province from Canada.

Starmer, accompanied by representatives of leading British firms, appears to have made headway, if Chinese media reports are to be believed.

“The official visit of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to China has yielded a series of concrete outcomes, as the two countries have agreed to develop a long-term, consistent, comprehensive strategic partnership," said a CGTN report.

It added that Beijing will cut import tariffs on whisky from 10% to 5% and is considering a unilateral visa waiver for British citizens. Both sides also agreed to establish a high-level partnership on climate change, resume security dialogue, and signed 12 intergovernmental cooperation documents.

They further agreed to resume high-level security talks and launch new economic, financial, and trade dialogues, including joint committee meetings.

Notably, the UK had greenlighted China’s plans to build a massive new embassy in central London before Starmer’s visit, despite warnings it could be used for espionage and pose security risks because of its proximity to fibre-optic cables carrying highly sensitive data. At 20,000 square metres, it would be China’s largest embassy anywhere in Europe.

As expected, Trump has not taken Carney’s and Starmer’s China visits well.

The BBC reported that Trump, while calling Chinese President Xi Jinping his “friend" and saying he knew Xi “very well", also warned that it was “very dangerous" for the UK to do business with China—odd, given that Trump himself is set to meet Xi in April to strike a trade deal.

In any case, Trump’s warnings are unlikely to deter Europeans searching for anchors in a Trump-dominated, unsteady world.

For Beijing, this is a moment to bask as a much sought-after safe harbour amid global uncertainty. It will want to project Starmer’s visit as a success—and lay the groundwork for another, by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in February.

US military destroyer docks at Israel's Eilat port

Meanwhile, in a world riddled with uncertainties—from the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump’s tariffs to other volatile variables—the possibility of more chaos looms. Tensions between Washington and Tehran are rising, with the US moving battleships to the Gulf.

A US missile destroyer has docked at Israel’s Red Sea port city of Eilat. Israeli news reports said the arrival of the destroyer at the southern port on the Gulf of Aqaba, near Israel's borders with Egypt and Jordan, was pre-planned and part of ongoing cooperation between the US and Israel.

Iran, for its part, said it has added 1,000 new “strategic drones" in preparation to meet the challenge posed by the US.

This comes amid protests in Tehran against the theocratic rule of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as economic woes pile up. Iran is weakened by the decapitation of Hamas and Hezbollah and by US attacks on its nuclear installations. The fall of the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria in December 2024 was also a blow for Tehran.

Iran is probably at its weakest in decades, which is why the US and Israel could be thinking this is the best time to force regime change, perhaps.

The outcome would be dangerous because of the unpredictability of the end result. It is difficult to see how an unstable Tehran would be good for the region. “Western military intervention" in Iraq and Libya ended dictatorships, but years of uncertainty followed. But then, Trump isn’t one to learn from anyone’s past mistakes—not even his own.

Elizabeth Roche is an associate professor of practice at O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana.

For more of her columns, read The International Angle.