US-Israel, Iran war: Traders warn $100 oil is imminent if conflict keeps raging

(Bloomberg) -- A week into one of the biggest ever disruptions to global energy markets, oil prices still remain far below levels seen in previous crises. But a growing chorus of energy executives and traders is warning that every day that war rages on brings the world closer to a tipping point — with several predicting $100 crude within days.

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but halted — making reality what had long been considered a worst-case scenario for the energy markets. The number of empty oil supertankers in the Gulf is running out, hastening the moment when more production will have to be curtailed.

While oil and gas prices have surged this week, they remain far below the highs seen just after Russia invaded Ukraine. There were signs on Friday that some of the initial oil market calm was dissipating, as Brent crude prices soared past $90 a barrel — taking their gain to more than a quarter this week.

Still, executives at four large trading houses, who asked not to be identified, said the market was still too complacent about the likely impact of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and predicted prices could hit $100 in days unless there was some de-escalation of hostilities.

There are already signs of stress in physical energy markets, where cuts at refineries in the Middle East and Asia have caused the price of products like diesel and jet fuel to soar. Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, said that the market is still adjusting to how long Hormuz might be shut.

“We see Brent reaching $100 a barrel and above in the coming days to weeks, once the market accepts that the Hormuz closure is a weeks-long event rather than a brief disruption,” he said.

Rising prices create a headache for US President Donald Trump, who’s championed his ability to keep fuel prices under control. Gasoline has never been more expensive than at any time he’s been president. The White House has made several attempts to calm oil markets this week — so far without success.

To be sure, the fate of the market depends on the trajectory of the conflict, and any resolution to the fighting or sign of unblocking of Hormuz would send oil prices tumbling again.

But for now, there’s little immediate hope that the Hormuz bottleneck can be fixed while the war continues to rage.

On Tuesday, Trump said the US would provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts to ensure safe passage for oil tankers and other vessels through Hormuz.

The announcement coincided with the final day of the reporting period for positioning data compiled by ICE Futures Europe and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which showed that investors pared back long-only bets on both Brent and WTI to start the week.

The muted bullish response reflected traders’ assumption that the conflict would be a contained, surgical operation, sparking a sharp spike in prices followed by a swift retracement, along with stubborn conviction that the Trump administration would step in with an 11th-hour policy move to curb energy prices.

“The market was 100% not set up for a prolonged conflict,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.

Three days on, three shipowners, and people close to some of the allied countries in the region, said they’d yet to receive any details on Washington’s plan.

Several owners also said that insurance, which the industry says is available, remains secondary to the safety of their crews. And it’s not even clear that naval escorts will bring a wholesale return to transits.

“There are concerns across the industry that going through in a convoy will just put a target on ships’ backs,” said Halvor Ellefsen a director at Fearnley’s Shipbrokers UK Ltd., who began his career at the tail-end of the 1980s tankers war. “I can’t see a short-term solution, and from where I sit that means higher oil prices, inflation and economic pain.”

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts late Friday said there are “large upside risks” to the bank’s oil-price forecasts, citing tighter-than-expected constraints on Hormuz shipping, limited Saudi Arabian capacity to shift crude exports to Red Sea ports, and the risks of a prolonged conflict.

“We now think that oil prices would likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions emerge by then,” Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a note to clients. “Oil prices may need to go to demand destruction levels even more quickly than history and simple models focusing on Persian Gulf exports only suggest.”

The “unprecedented” supply shock is 17 times larger than the worst supply cut incurred by Russia in in the weeks after its invasion of Ukraine, the analysts noted.

Diesel has rallied more than 50% in a week and jet fuel exceeded $200 a barrel in some parts of the world this week. European natural gas is up by almost two thirds.

In response to the situation, China has told its top refiners to stop exporting gasoline and diesel, a move mirrored by some other Asian countries.

Key producers are starting to sound the alarm too.

Qatar’s Energy Minister warned on Friday crude could hit $150 a barrel if the conflict isn’t solved soon, according to the Financial Times.

“We believe oil prices will continue their ascent for the next weeks if nothing changes in the conflict,” said Aldo Spanjer, head of energy strategy at BNP Paribas. “Onshore stocks filling up could drive production shut-ins through March, amplifying the upside.”

Physical oil markets are soaring too, an indication of demand for immediate supply.

Some barrels from the US are fetching their biggest premium since 2020 and the value of a major Norwegian grade, which normally moves almost lockstep with Brent, has gained more than $5 on the benchmark this week. Saudi Arabia just lifted its oil prices by the most since August 2022.

Producers in the region are trying to re-route their flows as much as they can. Saudi Arabia is sending barrels more than 1,000 kilometers across the country to its Western ports.

The United Arab Emirates also has a Hormuz bypass, exporting more than 1 million barrels a day through Fujairah. The two bypasses together, however, account for about a third of the 20 million barrels a day of oil that flows through the Strait in normal times.

‘Very Optimistic’

Trump is so far projecting calm in the face of rallying oil prices. “If they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit,” he said in an interview with Reuters on Thursday.

Still, his administration is taking steps to try to ease the market pressure. It issued a general license allowing Indian refiners to hoover up Russian barrels that became stranded at sea thanks to American sanctions. While the move will ease pressure on the Asian country’s refiners in the short-term, it’s a temporary fix.

The US has other possible ways to ease prices — from waivers of fuel-blending requirements to releasing strategic stocks. Still, officials have so far played down the prospect of tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

“We’ve got a whole flow chart of tools to use,” National Economic Director Kevin Hassett said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday. “But we’re also very optimistic that we’re going to be able to get this near-term problem resolved relatively quickly.”

That equanimity was echoed by the International Energy Agency, a group of major consumer countries, which said it did not see a need for a coordinated release of strategic stocks yet. “Our problem is a problem of dislocation,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, arguing that there was “plenty of oil” in the market.

Some countries are less relaxed. Japan is considering releasing strategic stocks — potentially alone rather than as part of a coordinated effort with other countries — news agency Kyodo reported.

With no sign of an end to hostilities or an unblocking of Hormuz on the horizon, energy markets are braced for a weekend of worry.

“On Sunday night when oil prices start trading again, if the straits are still closed I think the spike will be much more significant,” Amos Hochstein, a Managing Partner at TWG Global and former senior advisor to President Biden said of Hormuz.

--With assistance from Sherry Su, Fiona MacDonald, Salma El Wardany, Julian Lee, Yongchang Chin, Weilun Soon, Alfred Cang, Anthony Di Paola and Jonathan Ferro.