Vance Leaves, Questions Remain: What Now For Iran-US War Negotiations

Last Updated:April 12, 2026, 12:19 IST

The future of Strait of Hormuz is now a central issue in US-Iran war negotiations. The closure of the strait became an issue only after the war began.

The failure of talks between the United States and Iran after more than 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad has left Washington facing difficult choices. Vice President JD Vance was unable to secure the concessions the US wanted, but this outcome was not unexpected.

What’s next?

The collapse of negotiations puts the administration of US President Donald Trump at a crossroads. One option is to enter into a long and complex negotiation with Iran over its nuclear programme. The other is the possibility of returning to conflict, which has already caused major disruption to global energy supplies and raised concerns over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

White House officials have said the next step will be decided by Trump. However, both paths carry serious strategic and political risks.

Vance indicated that the US had presented a final proposal, asking Iran to permanently end its nuclear programme. He said Washington had clearly outlined its red lines and areas where it was willing to show flexibility, but Iran chose not to accept those terms.

The deadlock faced by Vance is largely similar to what happened in late February, when earlier talks in Geneva also failed. That breakdown pushed President Trump to launch a 38-day military campaign targeting Iran’s missile systems, bases and defence industry. Those earlier negotiations were led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who were also present in Islamabad during the latest round of discussions.

The US had hoped that its large-scale military campaign, which targeted more than 13,000 sites, would force Iran to shift its stance. However, Iran has made clear that the attacks have only strengthened its resolve.

Iranian officials said their losses have made them more determined to defend their rights and interests. This suggests that military pressure has not achieved the intended diplomatic outcome.

Fear of long negotiations

There is concern within the US administration about getting drawn into a prolonged negotiation process. Trump believes the US holds the upper hand and expects Iran to give in. However, past experience suggests otherwise.

The last major agreement between the two sides, reached under Barack Obama, took two years and involved multiple compromises, including limits rather than a complete end to Iran’s nuclear activity.

Key disputes remain

The main disagreements remain unchanged. Iran has previously offered to suspend its nuclear activities temporarily but refuses to give up its stockpile or its ability to enrich uranium. Tehran argues this is its right under international agreements, while the US sees it as a potential pathway to developing nuclear weapons.

Pressure of war and economy

Trump’s strongest leverage remains the threat of restarting military operations. A fragile ceasefire is set to end on April 21. However, resuming war carries political risks.

The conflict has already disrupted around 20 per cent of global oil supply, pushing up fuel prices and affecting supplies such as fertiliser and helium. Markets had reacted positively to hopes of a deal, and renewed conflict could reverse that trend and increase inflation.

What can Trump do?

President Donald Trump’s main leverage now lies in his ability to threaten a return to major military action. The current two-week ceasefire is fragile and is set to end on April 21. While the threat of renewed fighting may be used in the coming days, it is not an easy political option for Trump, and Iran is aware of this.

The ceasefire was announced partly to ease the pressure caused by the disruption of nearly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply. This had pushed up fuel prices and created shortages of key supplies such as fertiliser and helium used in semiconductor production. Markets had responded positively to the possibility of a deal, even an incomplete one. If the war resumes, markets are likely to fall, shortages could worsen, and inflation, already at 3.3 per cent, may rise further.

Strait of Hormuz at the centre

The future of the Strait of Hormuz is now a central issue in negotiations. The closure of the strait became an issue only after the war began, when Iran used it as a tool of economic pressure. Now, control over the waterway is tied to Tehran’s broader demands, including compensation for war damage and removal of long-standing sanctions. The United States has rejected paying compensation and said sanctions relief would only come gradually if Iran meets its commitments.

For now, both sides believe they have come out stronger from the conflict. The US points to its military campaign, while Iran highlights its ability to withstand it. With neither side ready to compromise, the path ahead remains uncertain.

More talks likely

Experts say the United States is keen to secure a deal, partly due to domestic political pressures. An agreement could offer Washington a way to step back from the conflict. The presence of a senior US delegation in Pakistan underlines how seriously the negotiations were being pursued.

American Foreign Michael Kugelman said the effort reflects strong US commitment. He noted that despite the lack of a deal, the process is far from over and further talks are likely, though the venue remains uncertain.

Kugelman described the “Islamabad Dialogue" as a pause rather than a failure. He pointed to growing pressure within the United States, including public fatigue over foreign conflicts and the strain of the 2026 economic crisis, as key factors driving the push for an agreement.

He suggested that the next steps could include continued low-level technical discussions, future high-level meetings in neutral locations such as Europe or cities like Muscat or Doha, and a phase of stronger US pressure to push Iran towards concessions.

“The US, for domestic political reasons, wants a deal that enables it to exit the war. That such a senior group flew all the way to Pak shows the US commitment. Despite Vance’s comments, this likely isn’t over. More talks could come-but unclear if they’ll be in Pak or elsewhere," reads Kugelman post on X.

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