War And Pollution: Can West Asia Conflict Impact India’s Summer And Monsoon?

Last Updated:March 13, 2026, 14:56 IST

While the pollution from the West Asia war is bound to impact the weather, can it have a direct effect on India’s summer or even the monsoon? News18 explains

Missiles, rockets, defence systems, the US, Israel and Iran are pulling out every weapon to establish their supremacy in the West Asia war.

While all of this is bound to impact the weather, can the West Asia war have a direct effect on India’s summer or even the monsoon? News18 explains.

THE IMD’S PREDICTION

The summer of 2026 is likely to be a “scorching preview" of the record-breaking heat seen in 2024, with some experts warning it could even mirror or surpass those extreme conditions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already issued early alerts for above-normal maximum temperatures across most of India from March to May 2026.

THE POLLUTION FROM WEST ASIA WAR

The ongoing conflict in West Asia (Middle East) is causing significant environmental pollution, ranging from massive greenhouse gas emissions to local toxic contamination of air, soil, and water.

Greenhouse gas emissions:

The carbon footprint of the conflict is comparable to that of entire nations.

Recent studies estimate that the Israel-Gaza war has generated approximately 33.2 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent. This is roughly equal to the annual emissions of the country of Jordan.

Operations alone — artillery, rockets, and fuel – have accounted for over 1.3 million tonnes of CO2 by January 2025.

The eventual rebuilding of destroyed infrastructure is projected to emit between 46.8 million and 60 million tonnes of CO2, exceeding the annual emissions of over 135 countries.

Air pollution and black rain:

Strikes on industrial and energy infrastructure have led to immediate, severe airquality crises. In March, soot-laden “black rain" was reported in Tehran following strikes on oil refineries and petrochemical facilities. Fires at fuel depots release complex mixtures of toxic compounds, including black carbon, dioxins, and furans, which can travel long distances and harm human health.

The disruption of the Suez Canal has forced ships to take longer routes (e.g., via the Cape of Good Hope), which can increase the carbon footprint of a single journey by up to 70%.

Soil and water contamination:

The physical destruction of cities has created a massive waste management crisis. Bombing in Gaza has created an estimated 50 million tonnes of debris as of late 2024. This rubble often contains hazardous materials like asbestos, heavy metals, and unexploded ordnance.

The collapse of civil infrastructure led to over 130,000 cubic metres of untreated sewage being discharged daily into the Mediterranean Sea, contaminating marine ecosystems and groundwater.

Up to 80% of tree cover and nearly half of the farmland in Gaza have been destroyed, stripping the land of its natural ability to act as a carbon sink.

Impact on surrounding regions:

While the war zone experiences acute toxic spikes, the pollution is transboundary. In 2025, several Middle Eastern cities, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai, ranked among the most polluted in the world due to a combination of conflict-related emissions and regional dust storms.

Real-time data from March 2026 showed that despite the war, air quality in cities like Tehran (AQI 33-60) was often significantly better than in New Delhi (AQI 323), highlighting the severity of India’s pollution compared to even active conflict zones.

HOW WEST ASIA WAR CAN IMPACT INDIA’S WEATHER AND MONSOON

The most significant connection is the “climate bridge" between West Asia and the Indian subcontinent. West Asia is one of the fastest-warming land regions. Warming in West Asia creates a low-pressure center during spring, which can prematurely pull south-westerly winds over the Arabian Sea.

This process heats up the Arabian Sea, leading to:

Increased Cyclones:

Warmer waters fuel more frequent and intense cyclonic activity.

Monsoon Extremes:

A warmer Arabian Sea pumps more moisture into the atmosphere, causing extreme rainfall events and flooding in Northwest India and Pakistan.

If a conflict generates massive emissions or cooling similar to a major volcanic eruption, it could weaken the “land-sea temperature contrast" necessary for the southwest monsoon, potentially leading to reduced rainfall.

Some weather scientists indicate that wind currents from the Middle East typically move toward India, which could contribute to above-normal temperatures and more intense heatwaves during the summer months (March–May).

The Middle East is a primary source of mineral dust for the Arabian Sea. While natural dust episodes can actually strengthen the monsoon through an “elevated heat pump" effect (heating the atmosphere and driving moisture toward India), excessive or different types of aerosols from war-related fires could disrupt these delicate circulation patterns.

Heavy bombardments, fires (like oil well fires), and massive movements of military hardware release large amounts of smoke, soot, and dust, thus aerosols and particulates, into the atmosphere. These particulates can block incoming sunlight (the “dimming" effect), potentially altering local temperature gradients that drive monsoon winds.

ECONOMIC AND POLICY IMPACT

While not a direct weather change, the war impacts how India manages its “weather-dependent" sectors.

India relies heavily on West Asia for fertilisers and LNG. Conflict-driven shortages can worsen the impact of a “bad" monsoon by making it harder for farmers to recover from crop failures.

Rising crude oil prices increase the cost of irrigation and food transport, compounding the economic distress caused by unseasonal rain or droughts.

INDIRECT EFFECTS

Rerouting shipping vessels around conflict zones (like the Strait of Hormuz) increases voyage distances and fuel consumption, raising the carbon footprint of India’s trade.

Disruptions to natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Middle East can strain India’s power grid during peak summer demand, making the country more dependent on unpredictable renewable sources like wind.

News explainers War And Pollution: Can West Asia Conflict Impact India’s Summer And Monsoon?

Read More