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What if Pakistan lose to the USA today? Do you think that’s impossible? Well, it already happened last time.
Pakistan lost to the USA in the 2024 T20 World Cup opener, and it badly hurt their path to qualification. After further loss to India, they had to win both remaining group matches against Canada and Ireland to reach 4 points.
Their hopes also depended on the USA losing its final 2 games. If both sides finished level on points, the Net Run Rate (NRR) would have decided progression.
Pakistan’s victory over Canada briefly improved that margin and kept the race alive. However, the USA already had 4 points and needed only 1 more from the Ireland match.
Rain intervened, and the game was abandoned, awarding the USA a shared point. That result lifted the USA to 5 points and ended Pakistan’s chances regardless of any later outcome.
Interestingly, Pakistan will follow a similar roster again this time, starting with the USA and then India.
PAK vs USA
Pakistan’s chances of qualifying for the Super 8s would have been severely jeopardised again after a loss to the USA if they stood firm on the boycott against India. However, the Pakistan government has officially withdrawn its boycott.
Without a forfeit, Pakistan keep control of its points and NRR. Yet, the road to qualification remains narrow. If Pakistan lose to the USA today, it will have only 2 points from 2 matches.
In that case, victories against both India and Namibia would likely be required to reach 6 points and stay in contention. Defeat against India after a loss to the USA would cap the total at 4 points. It is rare to secure a top 2 finish with 4 points in a 5-team group.
The NRR could also become decisive if Pakistan, the USA and the Netherlands end level on points overall.
IND vs PAK: Must-win for Pakistan
If the Men in Green lose today, the IND vs PAK match on 15 February becomes a must-win game for them. However, given Pakistan’s history in T20 cricket against India, defeating the Men in Blue seems exceptional.
India and Pakistan have played 16 T20 matches so far. India have won 13 of those while Pakistan emerged victorious in just 3 matches.
Pakistan’s record in ICC World Cups is even more disheartening for them. Out of 16 World Cup encounters, PAK have won just 1. What may be a little encouraging for them is the fact that the only victory against India came in a T20 World Cup.
On 24 October 2021, Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan broke India’s whitewash record in ICC World Cups. The opening pair secured a 10-wicket win against the Men in Blue, led by Virat Kohli.
Since then, however, India have played against Pakistan 5 times in T20 matches and won all of them. The run started one year after India’s loss against Pakistan. On 23 October 2022, in the T20 World Cup match in Melbourne, India won by 4 wickets.
Then, again on 9 June 2024, the India-Pakistan match in the T20 World Cup in ended in india’s favour. The Men in Blue won by 6 runs.
The dominance continued at the 2024 T20 World Cup in New York. In the 2025 Asia Cup held in Dubai, India defeated Pakistan twice in the group stage. Both matches ended in comfortable chases, with victories by 7 wickets and 6 wickets respectively.
The sequence concluded in the Asia Cup final on 28 September 2025. India completed the sweep with another controlled chase, winning by 5 wickets.
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