Where is Iran’s 408 Kg of enriched Uranium? Can Tehran still build a nuclear bomb dodging Trump's radar?

The US President Donald Trump administration pushed back on Thursday against multiple reports suggesting that Iran may have relocated enriched uranium before the US airstrikes, amid growing debate over how much the strikes impacted Tehran’s nuclear program.

Trump, who has sought recognition for authorising the military action and then swiftly declaring a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, reacted angrily to media coverage of a classified report that questioned the scale of damage inflicted on Iranian nuclear facilities.

"I can tell you, the United States had no indication that that enriched uranium was moved prior to the strikes, as I also saw falsely reported," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News.

“As for what's on the ground right now, it's buried under miles and miles of rubble because of the success of these strikes on Saturday evening,” she said.

US Vice President JD Vance, when asked about the enriched uranium on Sunday, offered a more cautious response, saying the matter would be addressed through diplomatic channels. 

The quantity of uranium had been reported by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, with which Iran is considering severing cooperation after the Israeli and US strikes on its nuclear program. "The IAEA lost visibility on this material the moment hostilities began," the agency's chief, Rafael Grossi, told France 2 television.

But, he added, "I don't want to give the impression that it's been lost or hidden.”

Trump has frequently said that the attack “obliterated” Iran's nuclear facilities, including the key site of Fordo buried inside a mountain. But an initial classified assessment, first reported by CNN, was said to have concluded that the strike did not destroy key components and that Iran's nuclear program was set back only months at most.

Trump's intelligence chiefs also pushed back on Wednesday.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe, in a statement, said that new intelligence from a “historically reliable” source indicated that “several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years.”

“I believe they didn’t have a chance to get anything out, because we acted fast,” said Trump. He added that moving such material is “very hard” and “very dangerous.”

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran held an estimated 408.6 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity as of June 10—enough, if further refined, to potentially produce more than nine nuclear weapons.

Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Newsweek that Iran has likely already dispersed and concealed much of its sensitive nuclear material and equipment amid rising tensions and recent military strikes.

“Fordow was reportedly evacuated before the US strike, and key centrifuge and uranium stockpiles are now unaccounted for and instead of neutralising Iran's nuclear capabilities, the war may have pushed Tehran closer to covert weaponisation under a hardened doctrine,” Toossi told Newsweek.

Arms control expert Kelsey Davenport warned that Iran’s enriched uranium—stored in small, easily movable canisters—could be difficult, if not impossible, to fully track, AFP reported.

Satellite images taken days before the US airstrikes showed vehicle activity near Fordo’s entrance, raising questions about the potential relocation of sensitive materials.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at possessing "interesting intelligence" but declined to offer details.

Days before the US attacked, satellite imagery showed vehicles near Fordo's entrance. “It will be difficult, if not impossible, to track down all of Iran's 60 per cent enriched uranium, stored in small canisters that are easily transportable by car,” Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association, told AFP.

“In any case, the technological knowledge is there, and the industrial capacity is there. That, no one can deny,” Grossi stated, emphasising the urgent need for the return of IAEA inspectors to Iranian nuclear sites as the only way to assess the situation accurately.

Before the U.S. strikes, Iran had around 22,000 centrifuges, the key machines used to enrich uranium. Arms control expert Kelsey Davenport warned that despite the damage, Iran may still be capable of building a nuclear weapon. “With 60 per cent enriched uranium and a few hundred advanced centrifuges, Iran still has the capability to weaponise—and now there is more political impetus to dash for a bomb,” she said.

On Monday, Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, condemned the recent U.S. strikes as an “unlawful act of aggression” and claimed they had “delivered a fundamental and irreparable blow” to the global non-proliferation regime.

International experts are sounding the alarm. Eric Brewer, with the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), warned, “There is a major risk that Iran withdraws from the NPT and expels inspectors, or simply does not provide them with access to key sites.”

On Monday, Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, condemned the recent U.S. strikes as an “unlawful act of aggression” and claimed they had “delivered a fundamental and irreparable blow” to the global non-proliferation regime.

International experts are sounding the alarm. Eric Brewer, with the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), warned, “There is a major risk that Iran withdraws from the NPT and expels inspectors, or simply does not provide them with access to key sites.”

Brewer added that Iran could follow a path similar to North Korea, which withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and eventually became a nuclear-armed state through a covert program.

(With inputs from agencies)