White House wonder: is Trump's indifference to US Congress elections just an another bluff?

Republicans’ chances of holding the Senate in November have now dropped to a coin flip (55% to 45%), according to betting markets.

Then there is the House of Representatives. Democrats’ chances of retaking the House are over 80%, according to Polymarket, a prediction market. A generic Democratic ticket is favoured by seven points, according to analyst Nate Silver.

To be sure, the party out of power is usually favoured during mid-term polls. Yet that advantage is being exacerbated by the president’s unusually low approval rating, particularly on the economy. Because Trump has demanded absolute loyalty from Republican members of Congress, representatives in swing districts and states have almost no room to separate themselves from him.

I’m also not seeing any attempt to woo back voters worried about rising costs. There is no legislative action on the horizon to address economic woes or bolster consumer confidence. Instead, Trump went on the record saying he does not “think about Americans’ financial situation.” What a gift for Democratic campaign ads.

Some folks may argue that Trump is just calling the shots after the fact.

Paxton was running slightly ahead in polls relative to Cornyn and might have won anyway; better to get behind the eventual winner. The mid-term map was always going to be hard for Republicans; might as well announce that you do not care. Prices keep going up, and probably will as long as the US is committed to tariffs and the war in Iran; so just say you do not think about it.

There is also the reality that the president called for an aggressive push to draw more favourable districts ahead of the November elections. He has also called for changes to who can vote and how votes can be cast and counted.

All these actions suggest he does care about maintaining the party’s power. The Democrats are not guilt-free when it comes to gerrymandering or attempting aggressive federal election reforms.

But I increasingly feel that Trump might actually benefit if the Senate and the House flip to Democratic control. A majority-Democratic Congress could become the scapegoat Trump’s second term has been missing. He can blame any and all shortcomings on Congress’s new Democratic majority.

In a dynamic unique to Trump, losing control of Congress would not impact his governing agenda much. Aside from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which largely was an extension of the previous 2017 tax bill, there has essentially been no major legislative agenda that would require Congress support. Trump has relied on executive action more than any modern president.

Another benefit: empowered Democrats are unlikely to be humble and moderate.

Bring on the legislative calendar filled with hearings, investigations and allegations. ‘This is what Americans voted for’ they may argue, whether it is government-run grocery stores or sweeping corruption charges against MAGA figures. They may also be tempted to ignore the underlying data that shows how the US remains deeply and evenly split. They might try to impeach the president or pass progressive legislation for the president to veto.

That, too, could work in Trump’s favour by turning him back into either a victim of the elite or a protector against the progressive tide. The president is at his political apex when he reminds America of what awaits on the other side: the woke agenda, the socialist agenda or worse.

The bottom line is that the November elections are going to be a real challenge for congressional Republicans partly because of the president’s recent actions. But for Trump, there might be political upside regardless of who wins.

Maybe our unconventional times have let my imagination wander too far. But at some point, when the president says he does not care about his party retaining power, one has to wonder why. ©Bloomberg

The author is a columnist, podcast host and consultant.