Why New Delhi is watching Bangladesh’s first post-Hasina election more closely than ever

Bangladesh Elections Today: Voting began on Thursday morning in Bangladesh's crucial general election – the first since the fall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in nationwide student-led protests in August 2024. Hasina is currently in exile in India, and her party — the Awami League — has been barred from contesting this election.

Voting began in 299 of 300 parliamentary constituencies across the country at 7:30 am (local time) and will continue until 4:30 pm. Voting in one constituency has been cancelled due to the death of a candidate.

The vote count is expected to begin shortly after voting concludes. The results are expected on Friday. The 13th parliamentary elections are being held simultaneously along with a referendum on a complex 84-point reform package.

Yunus, who has promised to quickly transfer power to the elected government, has urged the political parties, candidates and other concerned parties to maintain restraint, tolerance and democratic behaviour on the polling day.

For the first time, nearly 8,00,000 expatriate Bangladeshis registered with the poll body will be able to vote through an IT-based postal ballot system.

Throughout the fifteen years of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government in Bangladesh, New Delhi enjoyed friendly ties with Dhaka.

Hasina served as prime minister from 1996 to 2001 and again from 2009 to 2024. During this period, India treated Bangladesh as an important strategic partner and ally in maintaining security in South Asia.

The ties among neighbouring nations saw many a breakthrough. The 2015 Land Boundary Agreement was a landmark decision after a 1974 agreement languished unratified by India for decades. The agreement facilitated the transfer of 17,160.63 acres of land from India to Bangladesh, whilst India received 7,110.02 acres from Bangladesh.

India has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in Asia. Between April 2023 and March 2024, before Hasina's fall, India sold goods, including textiles, tea, coffee, auto parts, electricity, agriculture, iron and steel and plastics, worth $11.1bn.

India imported readymade garments, leather and leather products, among other items, worth $1.8bn, according to a report in Al Jazeera.

As violence ensued across Bangladesh, Hasina fled to India.

While she continues to be in exile in India, back home, the International Crimes Tribunal in convicted her for ordering the use of lethal force against protesters. Earlier this month, a special court in Bangladesh sentenced her to a total of 10 years in prison in two separate corruption cases linked to alleged irregularities in the allocation of government land under the Purbachal New Town project.

Bangladesh's interim government has repeatedly and unsuccessfully asked India to extradite Hasina, especially after a Dhaka court late last year sentenced her to death for ordering a deadly crackdown on the 2024 uprising against her administration.

A United Nations report estimated that up to 1,400 people were killed and thousands wounded, although Hasina has denied ordering the killings.

New Delhi fears that Hasina’s removal from power has created space for groups that are hostile towards India, amid growing anti-India rhetoric and violence in Bangladesh, according to experts on South Asia politics. Attacks on minorities – including Bangladesh’s Hindu population – have exacerbated tensions, they said.

The Hindu community constituted the traditional support base of Hasina’s Awami League.

Following the August 2024 upheaval, violent incidents targeting the Hindu community in Bangladesh were reported, resulting in multiple deaths and attacks on homes and businesses.

There have been about 2,700 incidents of targeted violence against Hindus in the past 18 months of the Yunus-led interim government, according to community leaders reported by Indian newspapers.

In recent weeks, India has restricted tourist visas for Bangladeshis and also withdrew families of Indian diplomats from Bangladesh, citing security concerns ahead of the national elections.

The diplomatic tension has affected sports ties too. Last month, Bangladesh withdrew from the men’s T20 World Cup after the International Cricket Council declined a request to move their group matches from India to the co-hosts Sri Lanka.

“People in Bangladesh see India as complicit with Sheikh Hasina’s crimes,” Humaiun Kobir, foreign affairs adviser to the leading prime ministerial candidate, Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), told news agency Reuters before the voting opened today.

In an interview with The Week this month, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the BNP secretary general, said the disputes between the two nations need to be resolved.

"First, water-sharing issues between the two neighbours must be resolved sincerely, not just discussed. “Second, border killings must stop. This is unacceptable in any civilised society. Third, trade issues need fair handling. The recent cricket-related incident was unfortunate and unnecessary. It triggered reactions on both sides. These matters should be addressed through immediate dialogue, keeping sovereignty, self-respect and mutual trust in mind,” he said.

Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit during Begum Khaleda Zia’s bereavement was a positive gesture, Alamgir said.

Bangladesh shares a 4,000 km border with India, touching five northeastern states. So, stability in Dhaka directly affects cross-border insurgency management, border security and migration flows and transit and infrastructure projects

Under Hasina, Dhaka acted decisively against anti-India militant groups. However, it remains to be seen how the next government works with India.

If the new Bangladesh dispensation adopts a more nationalist posture toward India, security cooperation could weaken — complicating India’s internal security architecture in the northeast, according to experts.

“Both sides have shown the intent to turn over a new leaf. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to attend Khaleda Zia’s funeral, carrying Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s letter referring to a “new beginning”, signals that New Delhi is willing to take small steps toward normalising relations if the new government in Dhaka shares the intent," Donthi told LiveMnt.

In a letter handed over to Tarique Rehman by Jaishankar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed his heartfelt condolences on the demise of his mother, former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

Modi said his thoughts are with the people of Bangladesh and that while her passing leaves an irreplaceable void, her vision and legacy will endure.

"It will all depend on how both sides manage domestic political pulls and pressures,” said Donthi.

(With agency inputs)