Why Yemen’s War Is Entering A New And Dangerous Phase And What Happens Next?

Last Updated:January 08, 2026, 16:23 IST

Saudi airstrikes on Mukalla marked a rare public confrontation between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s proxies in Yemen.

The strikes followed reports of UAE arms deliveries to the STC, raising alarms over the UAE’s continued military role despite announcing a drawdown of forces. 

Yemen, already devastated by nearly a decade of war, is facing a fresh crisis as fractures widen within the very coalition formed to fight the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The latest escalation has exposed growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two regional powers whose interests in Yemen increasingly diverge. While both countries have long opposed the Houthis, rival ambitions in southern Yemen are now threatening to ignite conflict among former allies- raising fears of renewed civil war and further destabilisation in the Arab world’s poorest country.

What Is The Anti-Houthi Coalition And Why Is It Divided?

The anti-Houthi coalition is a loose alliance of Yemeni factions backed primarily by Saudi Arabia and, until recently, the UAE. Its stated goal has been to restore Yemen’s internationally recognised government after the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, in 2014. But the coalition has never been ideologically unified. Over time, differences over territory, governance and control of resources have deepened. These tensions came to the surface in December when a coalition-aligned group attempted to seize parts of southern Yemen, breaking a fragile ceasefire among anti-Houthi forces.

Who Are The Southern Transitional Council And What Do They Want?

The Southern Transitional Council (STC) is the most powerful separatist force in southern Yemen and is backed by the UAE. It controls key port cities and strategic islands and seeks to re-establish South Yemen as an independent state, reversing the country’s unification in 1990. Last month, the STC advanced into the oil-rich governorates of Hadramout and Mahra, areas previously held by Saudi-backed forces. Tensions spiked after a shipment of UAE-supplied arms reportedly arrived for the STC in the port city of Mukalla, prompting Saudi airstrikes that pushed the separatists back.

Why Did Saudi Arabia And The UAE Clash Over Mukalla?

Saudi airstrikes on Mukalla marked a rare public confrontation between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s proxies in Yemen. The strikes followed reports of UAE arms deliveries to the STC, raising alarms over the UAE’s continued military role despite announcing a drawdown of forces. The incident triggered broader concern about the state of Saudi-UAE relations, with the anti-Houthi coalition later calling on the UAE to withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen- a demand the coalition said had been met over the weekend.

What Happened To The STC Leadership During The Crisis?

The STC is led by Aidarous al-Zubaidi, a member of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). As fighting escalated, al-Zubaidi declined to personally attend Saudi-hosted de-escalation talks in Riyadh, sending delegates instead. The PLC responded by expelling him and charging him with treason. While the STC said he remained in Aden to carry out his duties, Saudi Arabia later stated that al-Zubaidi fled Yemen by boat to Somalia and was then flown by the UAE to Abu Dhabi.

Who Are The Hadramout Tribes Confederacy And Why Do They Matter?

The Saudi-backed Hadramout Tribes Confederacy seized the PetroMasila oil facility in November, demanding a larger share of oil revenues and improved public services for residents of Hadramout. The STC later moved into the area, using the seizure as justification to take control of oil infrastructure. This overlap of economic grievances and separatist ambitions added another layer of complexity to the conflict in southern Yemen.

What Role Do The National Shield Forces Play?

The National Shield Forces (NSF) are a Saudi-backed military group aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognised government. They played a key role in rolling back the STC’s recent advances, retaking territory in Aden, Hadramout, and al-Mahra. The government-appointed governor of Hadramout, Salem al-Khanbashi, now commands Saudi-led forces in the region. Yemen’s leadership has credited the NSF with restoring control over major military and security sites.

What Is The Presidential Leadership Council And Why Is It Struggling?

The Presidential Leadership Council replaced President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi in 2022 and was designed to unify anti-Houthi factions under a single governing body. Instead, internal rivalries and competing foreign backers have weakened the council.

What Happens Next For Yemen?

Saudi Arabia has said it plans to host talks in Riyadh to address southern Yemen’s crisis, but continued military deployments and political fallout have cast doubt on whether meaningful dialogue can resume. As the Houthis remain entrenched in the north, renewed conflict in the south risks fragmenting Yemen even further- complicating peace efforts and deepening a humanitarian crisis that has already left millions dependent on aid.

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