From Teesta To Minorities: How Jamaat's Presence In Parliament May Affect India-Bangladesh Issues

Last Updated:February 13, 2026, 10:53 IST

Jamaat’s ideological hostility towards India and its proximity to Pakistan could push the government into taking tougher public positions to avoid appearing “soft” on India.

India’s long-standing strategic comfort with the Awami League in Dhaka is entering an uncertain phase as a new government, led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) takes charge, facing both domestic pressures and international scrutiny.

For New Delhi, the immediate concern is not instability, but recalibration. A BNP-led administration will have to navigate a Parliament where Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami holds influence and seeks to shape the national conversation. While Jamaat’s presence in Parliament does not constitute an immediate crisis for India, it represents a longer-term strategic challenge. Click here for Live updates on Bangladesh election result.

The BNP government is likely to face sustained pressure from Jamaat to harden its foreign policy posture. Jamaat’s ideological hostility towards India and its historical proximity to Pakistan could push the government into taking tougher public positions to avoid appearing “soft" on India. Issues such as the long-pending Teesta River water-sharing agreement could be recast as nationalist rallying points, complicating bilateral negotiations.

India-backed connectivity projects, energy cooperation frameworks, and regional integration initiatives may face greater political resistance. Security coordination — particularly on counterterrorism and border management — could slow down under pressure from nationalist and Islamist constituencies. Reduced enthusiasm for India-supported transport corridors and supply chain integration in sectors such as garments and energy would mark a significant shift from the trajectory seen under previous governments.

The domestic dimension is equally sensitive. Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, already unsettled since the unrest of 2024, may experience heightened anxiety in a more polarised political climate. Reports of lower minority voter participation reflect fears of intimidation. Any sustained communal tension could carry cross-border implications, including the risk of refugee flows into India’s border states.

Intelligence sources in New Delhi are also focused on external linkages. Jamaat’s historical ties to Pakistan raise concerns about potential facilitation networks.

Indian agencies remain wary of possible propaganda funding and influence operations targeting border districts. Parliamentary legitimacy, analysts warn, could act as a recruitment multiplier, offering ideological cover to networks seeking to radicalise segments of Bangladeshi youth.

There are also concerns about economic vulnerability. India-backed infrastructure and energy projects could face sabotage, political obstruction, or information leaks. A more adversarial opposition environment increases the risk of economic espionage and disruption.

For India, therefore, the challenge is not immediate rupture but managing a more complex Bangladesh — one where domestic political compulsions in Dhaka may increasingly shape the tone and substance of bilateral ties.

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