How sub-normal rains may affect reservoir levels

What is the current status of India’s reservoir levels?

As per the Central Water Commission(CWC), water level in 166 key reservoirs stands at 44.7% of total live capacity, higher than last year (38%) and above the normal benchmark of 35%. The live storage capacity in these major reservoirs monitored by CWC is 183.565 billion cubic metres (BCM), or about 71.20% of the total capacity of 257.812 BCM of all the reservoirs in India. As on 9 April, the water available in these 166 reservoirs was 82.070 BCM. However, last year the live storage available in these reservoirs was 69.752 BCM and normal storage was 64.618 BCM. Live capacity is the usable volume of water for irrigation, drinking, and hydropower. Normal storage is the average storage over the past 10 years.

Which regions are seeing lower reservoir levels?

With 63.47 BCM, live storage capacity levels in all the major reservoirs in northern, eastern, western and central regions are better than last year. However, in the southern region, it has dipped to 18.59 BCM as compared to 19.35 BCM seen last year, according to CWC data. The southern region comprises Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana and has 47 reservoirs under CWC monitoring. Also, compared to historical levels, storage in all regions except the eastern region exceeded their respective normal storage. The live storage in the eastern region was 42.2% compared to the normal storage of 42.8%.

Why is there concern ahead of the kharif season?

The IMD has projected that the south-west monsoon rains—crucial for irrigating most of the country’s farmlands—may reach only 92% of its 50-year average, below the normal range of 96-104%. This could limit replenishment of water reservoirs. This may affect irrigation, rural livelihoods, and overall farm output during the kharif season as only about 55% of India’s net sown area is irrigated, leaving the rest reliant on rainfall. This assumes significance, given that agriculture and allied activities account for 15.6% of India’s national income, with the sector accounting for 46.1% of the country’s workforce.

What is the potential impact on agriculture?

While reservoir levels typically exhibit a seasonal pre-monsoon (March-May) drawdown, followed by Southwest Monsoon-led replenishment during June-September, a below-normal rainfall will likely limit reservoir replenishment. Aditi Nayar, chief economist of Icra, said that the below-normal monsoon forecast does not augur well for reservoir storage level. “Besides, sub-par rainfall is expected to weigh on sowing of kharif crops, and consequently, agricultural output, farm cash flows and food prices,” she added. Weak monsoon could build price pressures.

Will a weak monsoon hit power generation?

India has an installed hydropower generation capacity of 51,164.66MW, or nearly 10% of the country’s total power generation capacity. But a weak monsoon may not hit hydropower generation. “A weak monsoon may not have a very big impact on the hydropower generation. In the run of the river projects, which do not have reservoirs, it is lower snowfall which has more impact than the rains. However, if there is dry spell of about 10-15 days, it would impact hydro power generation from reservoir-based projects,” said Abhay Kumar Singh, former chairman of NHPC.

Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.