TVK wrests nearly half of DMK, AIADMK seats — but why is Vijay's CM dream so near yet so far

Breaking away from the traditional Dravidian duopoly in the Assembly elections 2026, Tamil Nadu voted for a new leader to head the state. Yet, despite a sweeping mandate, he fell short of the one thing needed to form a government: a majority.

While the Tamil Nadu Election Results 2026 saw Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as the single-largest party, the power to choose the next state government still seemed to rest with the old Dravidian ecosystem and its allies.

Here, we explain:

1. How Vijay's TVK, which made a historic debut in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, captured nearly half of the seats won by the DMK and AIADMK in the last state elections

2. Why he is still not able to form a majority government in the state; and

3. How the DMK and the AIADMK and their allies — which have long dominated Tamil Nadu politics — have the ball in their court despite voters giving more share to the TVK.

Of these 108 seats, 65 were previously held by a DMK MLA. In the 2021 state elections, the DMK won 133 seats. This means that the TVK won over half of the seats the DMK had won in the 2021 polls.

These 65 seats, which were transferred from the DMK to TVK, were:

Similarly, the TVK won 26 of the 66 seats held by AIADMK (nearly 40 per cent) in the 2021 elections. These 26 seats were:

Earlier, Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar asked TVK chief Vijay to show majority numbers and submit a list of supporting MLAs during the second round of discussions held in Chennai on Thursday.

In the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, where 118 is the majority mark, the TVK has 108 MLAs. Adding five seats won by the Congress, the number in favour of Vijay touches 113 -- five short of the majority mark.

From where will these five MLAs come? The TVK could form the government if it gets support from any of the political parties that won seats in the assembly — be it the Left, the AIADMK, the DMK, the VCK or the IUML.

However, that's not the case.

DMK's chief and Tamil Nadu's outgoing Chief Minister MK Stalin dismissed allying with the TVK or the AIADMK. Stalin told The Times of India on Wednesday that the DMK will wait for TVK leader C Joseph Vijay to form the government, and “watch without disturbing for six months."

What about AIADMK? On the AIADMK front, MLAs of the party were lodged in a resort in neighbouring Puducherry, as reports suggest a split within the party over the TVK.

Sources told ANI that AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami has not agreed to the proposal of supporting TVK. But, they said, leaders, including CV Shanmugam and OS Manian are in favour of extending support to TVK in return for major positions in the proposed government.

Sources also claimed that discussions are taking place over a possible power-sharing arrangement, under which CV Shanmugam could be offered the post of Deputy Chief Minister along with key ministerial portfolios.

However, AIADMK leader S Semmalai said that the party has not received any invitation from TVK, written or oral, seeking support to form a government in the state, PTI reported.

If not AIADMK, whose support could make Vijay the CM? If none of the DMK and the AIADMK MLAs supports Vijay, the onus falls on the Left and other regional parties.

If any of the three — from the Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — extend support to the TVK, the alliance could form the state government.

But, notably, the VCK, CPI and CPI (M) are allies of the DMK, while the BJP has a pre-poll alliance with the AIADMK. The question is whether these parties or a few MLAs would break away from the AIADMK or DMK to help the TVK?

What these parties have said:

TVK has reached out to the CPI and other Left parties to seek support in the Tamil Nadu government formation.

The VCK and the CPI have confirmed their support yet, but urged Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar to invite TVK president Vijay to form the government since his is the single-largest party.

"We can't make a magic decision. VCK's high-level committee will meet tomorrow and make a final decision. The Left parties will also meet in their respective offices," VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan was quoted by PTI as saying on Thursday, May 7.

"Because we have been working with the Left parties for the past ten years, we have resolved to arrive at a decision jointly. That is why we are awaiting their decision," Thirumavalavan told ANI.

The Tamil Nadu unit of CPI urged the Governor to act in order of the Constitution and noted that it is "inappropriate" for him to ask Vijay to prove his majority before swearing in.

Meanwhile, CPI (M) leader P Shanmugam said on Thursday that his party has received a letter from Tamilaga Vetra Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay, on which discussion will be held in the party's state committee meeting.

"TVK Chief sent a letter to our party. Our State Committee meeting will be held tomorrow morning; we will make our decision in it," said Shanmugam.

However, Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar did not entertain Vijay's claim to the form the government and explained on Thursday that the TVK does not have the required majority support in the state Assembly to form the government.

The CPI said voters did not deliver a clear mandate, leaving any single party unable to form the government independently.

"However, the electorate has given Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam 108 seats, making it the single largest party in the Assembly. Based on this, TVK leader Vijay has met the Governor and staked a claim to form the government. It is not appropriate for the Governor to insist that TVK prove its majority before the swearing-in ceremony," CPI said in its statement, as per ANI.

Rajya Sabha MP Kapil Sibal also said that Vijay must be allowed to take the oath as the leader of the single-largest party. He invoked the Sarkaria Commission to write on X, “Swear him in as CM. Let him prove his majority on the floor of the House. No post poll alliance in majority.”

Meanwhile, actor Prakash Raj posted on X, "Vijay has got the mandate. He should be allowed to claim his right on the floor of the house."

All eyes are now on the next move of the Left and the regional party, including the AIADMK MLAs lodged in a Puducherry resort. Will they help Vijay become the CM?